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Bitcoin is once again under intense pressure as one of the market’s most well-known long-term holders offloaded hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of BTC within a few days. The aggressive reduction in long-held supply has reignited fears of a deeper correction, especially as institutional demand weakens and ETF flows turn negative. With the broader market already showing caution, traders are now preparing for the possibility of a drop toward the $96,000 region or even lower.
This week’s developments reflect the rapidly shifting sentiment that has characterized the second half of 2025. Despite Bitcoin reaching a record high of $126,000 in October, the market continues to struggle under the combined weight of weakening inflows, macro uncertainty, and heavy distribution from long-term holders.
A Major Bitcoin Whale Cuts Holdings Dramatically
Owen Gunden, a veteran Bitcoin holder often classified as an “OG whale,” has triggered fresh debate among analysts after unloading another 700 BTC through Kraken on 11 November. His total sell-off for the week climbed to 1,800 BTC, valued at approximately $200 million.
This activity forms part of a broader pattern that began in early October. Gunden, who previously held over 11,000 BTC worth roughly $1.4 billion, has steadily reduced his position to around 5,350 BTC. His remaining holdings now stand near $560 million, marking one of the largest individual reductions by a long-term holder in recent years.
While Gunden’s wallet is close to being significantly depleted, analysts warn that he is not the only large investor engaging in heavy distribution. Several other long-term holders have also been reducing exposure, contributing to weakening market structure at a time when support from institutional buyers is already strained.
Long-Term Holders Offload $43 Billion in Bitcoin
On-chain data shows that the recent activity is not an isolated event. Long-term holders (LTHs), defined as wallets holding BTC for more than five months, have sold approximately 414,000 BTC on a monthly average in November. That supply — valued at about $43 billion — represents one of the most intense periods of distribution in the asset’s history.
The sell-off trend began in July and accelerated sharply in October, creating significant headwinds for Bitcoin’s price. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, BTC has fallen from its peak of $126,000 to just above the $100,000 level.
Historical data shows that large-scale distribution from long-term holders does not always result in immediate price declines. In fact, Bitcoin reached its all-time high in October even as whale selling was underway. This led many analysts to argue that sufficient demand existed at the time to absorb the sell pressure without impacting price stability.
However, the market environment has changed rapidly. Demand that once came from ETFs and corporate treasury allocations has weakened significantly. Without these strong inflows, the market has become more sensitive to any major supply shock, giving the recent distribution a greater impact on price.
ETF Outflows Add to the Downward Pressure
One of the most concerning angles for analysts is the shift in ETF behavior. Throughout early and mid-2025, ETFs played a major role in supporting Bitcoin’s run toward $126K. Their steady buying created a strong cushion against selling activity from larger holders.
That trend has now reversed. Over recent weeks, ETF flows have turned increasingly negative, reaching outflows of 31,000 BTC in November alone. This shift mirrors the sour market sentiment that dominated early 2025 during the tariff war environment.
This reduction in institutional participation leaves the market exposed. With fewer buyers willing to absorb supply, each major sell-off from whales exerts greater downward pressure. As a result, analysts warn that Bitcoin’s momentum could remain fragile unless ETF inflows return and reignite demand.
Options Market Shows Rising Fear Among Traders
Alongside on-chain activity, the Options market is sending a clear signal: traders are preparing for more volatility. As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $105,000, but Options volumes suggest growing uncertainty among both short-term and long-term market participants.
Recent data shows a sharp increase in put buying — contracts that profit when prices fall. Many traders have targeted levels as low as $85,000 for late December, reflecting widespread concerns that BTC may face more turbulence through the end of the year.
For Options expiring at the end of November, a notable rise in hedging activity indicates that traders expect the price to potentially revisit the $96,000 region. That price has emerged as a major psychological and technical level, representing an area where many investors expect buyers to step in if a sharper correction occurs.
Interestingly, the only significant call buying over the past 24 hours has occurred around the $108,000 mark. This suggests that while some traders still anticipate short-term rebounds, the overall expectation leans toward continued weakness unless market conditions improve.
Can Bitcoin Recover From the Current Pressure?
The path forward largely depends on demand, particularly from ETFs and institutional buyers. If inflows return, Bitcoin could regain its footing and potentially stabilize above the $100,000 level. Historically, rising institutional activity has played a key role in shaping long-term market direction.
However, without renewed demand, the combination of whale selling, weakening sentiment, and increased hedging may continue to weigh on the price. Analysts note that the next major move will likely be determined by how quickly ETF flows recover — or whether they continue to drain liquidity from the market.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s current downturn reflects a complex and rapidly changing environment. The large-scale selling by long-term holders, especially influential whales like Owen Gunden, has raised new concerns about market stability. Combined with ETF outflows and heightened caution in the Options market, the pressure on BTC remains significant.
Whether Bitcoin stabilizes or moves toward the $96K region depends heavily on demand returning from institutional channels. Until then, traders may continue to brace for volatility as the market navigates one of the most challenging phases of 2025.
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