Community Trust ScoreVerified
Bitcoin’s recent price drop has reignited debate about whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency is entering a deeper correction or simply pausing before its next major rally. According to Bloomberg’s senior macro strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin’s decline toward the $100,000 mark should be viewed as a “speed bump” on its broader journey, with potential downside extending to around $56,000.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Thursday, McGlone wrote that Bitcoin’s move toward $100K aligns with historical market behavior. He pointed out that Bitcoin has a tendency to revert to its 48-month moving average, currently around $56,000, after strong rallies. “My look at the chart shows how normal it’s been for the first-born crypto to revert to its 48-month moving average,” McGlone explained, suggesting that this correction phase mirrors previous cycle cool-downs rather than a full-scale trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s Slide Below $100K Marks a Key Test
Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000 on November 4 marked the first time in over four months that the cryptocurrency had fallen beneath this critical psychological threshold. The move triggered widespread discussion across the crypto community, with traders split between seeing it as a signal of weakness or a prime buying opportunity.
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization. As of Friday, it was trading at around $101,380, according to CoinMarketCap, representing a modest rebound from its recent low of $98,000. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 7.6%, with broader market sentiment remaining cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off behavior from institutional investors.
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bitcoin Has Found a Local Bottom
While traditional analysts like McGlone warn of further downside, on-chain data tells a more balanced story. Researchers at XWIN Research Japan and analytics platform Glassnode have highlighted several metrics suggesting Bitcoin’s current decline could be nearing its end.
One of the most closely watched indicators, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, has dropped to levels typically associated with local bottoms. The MVRV ratio helps determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued based on investor cost basis. According to XWIN, the current readings align with historical patterns that have previously preceded significant recoveries.
In its latest market report, Glassnode emphasized that Bitcoin’s correction appears orderly rather than panic-driven. The firm pointed to the Relative Unrealized Loss metric — which measures the proportion of unrealized losses relative to total market capitalization — as evidence of this.
“Unlike the 2022–2023 bear market, where losses reached extreme levels, the current reading of 3.1% suggests only moderate stress,” Glassnode noted. The firm added that such figures are typical of mid-cycle corrections, similar to those seen in Q3–Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, all of which remained below the 5% threshold.
“As long as unrealized losses stay within this range, the market can be classified as a mild bear phase characterized by orderly revaluation rather than panic,” Glassnode’s analysts concluded.
Institutional Pressure and Market Sentiment
The correction comes amid broader risk aversion in global markets, driven by economic uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s retreat has coincided with four consecutive sessions of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling around $1.3 billion. These outflows have weakened one of the main sources of institutional demand that supported Bitcoin’s rally earlier this year.
Market observers also note that liquidations of leveraged long positions have contributed to the downward pressure. More than $1 billion in long positions were wiped out earlier this week, reinforcing the narrative that speculative excesses from the prior rally are being flushed out of the market.
Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s Next Move
While McGlone’s analysis points toward a possible revisit to $56,000, others believe Bitcoin has already bottomed out. Several traders argue that the current price zone around $100,000 represents a healthy consolidation level rather than the start of a deeper decline.
Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, remains cautious, suggesting that Bitcoin could still experience a 65%–70% retracement over the next two years if macroeconomic headwinds intensify. However, other long-term optimists, including market data providers and on-chain analysts, see structural strength building beneath the surface.
Meanwhile, ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood has revised her long-term Bitcoin price target, trimming it by $300,000 due to growing competition from stablecoins in emerging markets. Wood said that stablecoins are increasingly serving as digital stores of value and units of account, challenging Bitcoin’s role in those regions.
A Calm Correction or Early Warning?
The debate over Bitcoin’s trajectory continues, but most analysts agree that the current pullback is not causing widespread panic. Market data suggests that investors remain relatively composed, with volatility levels contained and long-term holders showing minimal movement of funds.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above $98,000 and regain momentum toward $110,000, sentiment could shift rapidly once again. For now, the market appears to be entering a mid-cycle cooling phase, one that could ultimately provide the foundation for the next leg higher — if the data continues to support stability over fear.
