Bitcoin’s first negative October since 2018 has left traders uneasy, but market experts believe the correction may be more of a breather than a breakdown. Despite recent volatility, analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains firmly bullish, with expectations of a recovery phase building through November and potential gains extending into the year’s final quarter.
Bitcoin ended October trading around $107,000, down about 1.4% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The broader crypto market also dipped 2.2%, bringing the total market capitalization to $3.64 trillion. The correction triggered a wave of leveraged position closures, with more than $1.16 billion in long liquidations recorded on November 3.
While such numbers might seem alarming, analysts suggest that this phase represents a necessary recalibration in Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle rather than the start of a downturn. The crypto asset has risen dramatically throughout the year, and periods of cooling are often viewed as healthy signs of consolidation before the next leg up.
Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, noted that the “Red October” could ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s setup for the months ahead. “Corrections like this tend to be the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than the end,” Lin explained. “What we’re seeing now is a natural adjustment as traders reassess risk after an extended rally.”
The pullback came amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to end quantitative tightening, followed by mixed signals about future rate cuts, added uncertainty across financial markets. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks tempered hopes for a December rate cut, pushing investors toward a more cautious stance.
Bitcoin, which often mirrors risk-on assets like tech stocks, saw its U.S. trading session performance decline sharply—from a gain of 0.94% on October 29 to a weekly drop of 4.56%, according to data from Velo.
Meanwhile, a slight thaw in U.S.-China relations provided some relief. The trade truce reached between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping paused the threat of 100% tariffs, calming global market sentiment. The development could serve as a modest tailwind for Bitcoin if the easing continues, given that reduced trade tensions often boost risk appetite among institutional investors.
Bitcoin’s short-term weakness was also evident in spot ETF flows. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded heavy outflows during the final week of October. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw its largest single-day redemption since August—about $291 million—contributing to a combined net outflow of $388 million across all U.S. spot ETFs.
While some viewed this as a sign of cooling institutional sentiment, analysts pointed out that such movements are typically short-lived. “ETF investors are responding to macro uncertainty, not rejecting Bitcoin’s long-term thesis,” Lin said. “We’ve seen similar pullbacks in the past followed by sharp inflows once confidence returns.”
Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s most profitable months. Over the last 12 years, the cryptocurrency has posted an average return of around 42% during November—making it one of the strongest seasonal performers in Bitcoin’s history.
Analysts believe this pattern could repeat if market sentiment stabilizes and macro signals turn supportive. “For November, I expect a period of stabilization and cautious optimism,” Lin said. “Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as markets digest the Fed’s tone, but a decisive shift in policy outlook could trigger a renewed rally.”
The fundamental backdrop remains encouraging. Institutional participation continues to grow, particularly through custody and structured investment products. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that long-term holders remain steady, indicating strong conviction in Bitcoin’s future despite short-term price fluctuations.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin continues to follow a “range-higher” pattern, meaning each consolidation phase has been forming at higher price levels compared to the last. This structure suggests that bullish momentum remains intact, even if short-term volatility persists.
On-chain metrics further support this perspective. Data from Glassnode shows a sustained increase in addresses holding Bitcoin for more than one year, alongside declining exchange reserves—both signs that investors are accumulating rather than exiting.
“Bitcoin’s structural demand is not only holding firm but actually growing,” noted Lin. “That’s why a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach.”
Beyond immediate price movements, the broader narrative around Bitcoin continues to strengthen. Institutional players are deepening their involvement, global adoption is expanding, and macroeconomic uncertainty is reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against fiat instability.
The cooling of the trade war between the U.S. and China, if it holds, may add another layer of support. A more predictable geopolitical environment could encourage cross-border investment activity, potentially benefiting digital assets positioned as global, non-sovereign alternatives.
Still, challenges remain. Persistent inflation concerns, energy price fluctuations, and shifting regulatory developments could all weigh on investor sentiment in the months ahead. Yet for long-term believers, these factors are viewed as temporary hurdles rather than structural threats.
As November unfolds, Bitcoin’s path will depend on a mix of macroeconomic signals, investor psychology, and technical behavior. If inflation data and Federal Reserve communication align with expectations of gradual easing, the market could see renewed buying momentum heading into December.
Even after “Red October,” the tone among leading analysts remains notably upbeat. Most see the recent dip as a mid-cycle reset that clears the path for further gains. The combination of historical seasonality, resilient on-chain data, and growing institutional participation continues to paint a bullish picture for Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook.
If these dynamics persist, Bitcoin’s year-end range between $120,000 and $150,000 may not be out of reach—marking another milestone in what many consider the most resilient bull cycle in the asset’s history.
Pankaj is a skilled engineer with a passion for cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. With over five years of experience in digital marketing, Pankaj is also an avid investor and trader in the crypto sphere. As a devoted fan of the Klever ecosystem, he strongly advocates for its innovative solutions and user-friendly wallet, while continuing to appreciate the Cardano project. Like my work? Send a tip to: 0x4C6D67705aF449f0C0102D4C7C693ad4A64926e9
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