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Bitcoin’s riding high above $78,000 right now. But one trader thinks that’s basically the top for this cycle—and he’s got receipts from past May meltdowns to back it up.
Merlijn The Trader dropped a chart showing Bitcoin peaked in May three times before: 2014, 2018, and 2022. Each time, the coin tanked hard. We’re talking 61%, 65%, and 66% drops. He’s calling for a similar wipeout this time, maybe 60.73% down from where we are now. That’d put Bitcoin somewhere around $33,000. Pretty wild. His pitch? “Sell in May and go away.” He’s not hedging much on this one.
Conflicting Views on Support Levels
Not everyone’s that bearish, though. Ted Pillows sees things differently. He’s watching $75,000 as strong support and thinks Bitcoin could actually rip higher if it cracks the $78,000 to $80,000 zone. Break through there, and he sees a run toward the CME gap near $86,000. That gap’s been sitting there for a while, kind of begging to get filled.
But Pillows isn’t ignoring the downside. If Bitcoin can’t punch through that resistance, he warns it could slide back to $70,000. Maybe even $66,318 if things get ugly. So he’s got two paths mapped out, and neither’s a sure thing. It all hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above $78,000 or if sellers show up hard at that level.
The contrast’s pretty stark. Merlijn’s looking at years of data and seeing a pattern that repeats like clockwork. Pillows is zooming in on the next few weeks, watching how price reacts at specific levels. Both make sense in their own way, which probably just means Bitcoin’s going to do something nobody expects.
Historical Patterns vs. Immediate Price Action
Merlijn’s whole thesis rests on cycles repeating. He’s traced Bitcoin’s mid-cycle behavior and found May keeps showing up as a danger zone. Each time Bitcoin peaked in May during previous cycles, a massive correction followed within months. He thinks traders who recognize this pattern can time their exits better than folks just watching daily candles.
His chart’s got all three prior May peaks marked out, with the subsequent drops lined up side by side. The consistency’s kind of eerie. And if you’re someone who believes markets move in waves—that human psychology drives the same reactions at similar points in each cycle—then Merlijn’s case looks solid. But cycles can break. They don’t always repeat perfectly, and 2025 brought some new variables into play that weren’t around in 2018 or 2014.
Pillows doesn’t care much about what happened seven or eleven years ago. He’s focused on the resistance zone right in front of us. That $78,000 to $80,000 band has rejected Bitcoin a few times already in recent weeks. If buyers can finally push through, the path clears toward $86,000 pretty fast. There’s not a ton of resistance between $80,000 and that CME gap, so a breakout could move quick.
On the flip side, failing at resistance again would confirm sellers are still in control at these levels. That’d probably trigger stop losses and push Bitcoin back down toward $70,000. And if $70,000 doesn’t hold, the next real support sits around $66,318. Pillows didn’t say it outright, but that level lines up with some older consolidation zones, so it makes sense as a landing spot if things turn south.
The thing is, both analysts are basically saying the same thing: the next move matters a lot. Merlijn thinks the move’s already decided—down, hard, soon. Pillows thinks it depends on whether Bitcoin can break resistance or not. Same levels, different conclusions.
Neither guy’s offering guarantees. Merlijn’s pattern could break this time. Maybe institutional money or ETF inflows change the game enough that May 2025 doesn’t play out like May 2022. Or maybe Pillows’ resistance zone cracks and Bitcoin rips to $86,000, only to top out there and still dump later like Merlijn expects. Could be both analysts end up right, just on different timelines.
What’s clear is that $78,000 to $80,000 is the line in the sand. Bitcoin’s been hovering around there for days, and volume’s starting to dry up. That usually means a big move’s coming. Traders are probably watching order books pretty closely, looking for which side blinks first. A surge above $80,000 with strong volume would invalidate Merlijn’s immediate top call. A rejection here with a drop below $75,000 would give his thesis some teeth.
The CME gap at $86,000 adds another wrinkle. Gaps tend to get filled eventually, and this one’s been sitting open since March. If Bitcoin does break higher, that gap becomes a magnet. But gaps can also mark tops—price runs up to fill the gap, then reverses hard. So even a rally to $86,000 wouldn’t necessarily mean Merlijn’s wrong about a bigger correction coming.
One thing Merlijn’s chart doesn’t show is what happened *before* those May peaks. Did Bitcoin rally into them? Did it chop sideways? Context matters. If Bitcoin was already overheated heading into May in past cycles, that’d make sense for a top. Right now, Bitcoin’s been consolidating for weeks after a strong Q1. It’s not screaming overbought, but it’s not exactly oversold either. Kind of stuck in the middle, which makes the next move harder to predict.
Pillows’ dual-scenario approach is probably more useful for traders who want to stay flexible. Set alerts at $80,000 and $75,000, then react based on which one hits first. That’s less committal than Merlijn’s “sell now” message, but it also means you could miss the top if Bitcoin just rolls over from here without giving a clear signal.
The $33,000 target Merlijn’s throwing out there sounds extreme, but it’s not impossible. A 60% drop from $78,000 lands right around there, and Bitcoin’s done that before. Multiple times. The question’s whether this cycle has enough new support—ETFs, corporate treasuries, nation-state buyers—to cushion a fall like that. Or whether those holders would panic-sell too if momentum shifts hard enough.
Bitcoin’s sitting at a crossroads. Break higher, and the rally could extend for weeks or months. Break lower, and Merlijn’s May top thesis starts looking a lot more credible. Traders are split, analysts are split, and the chart’s not giving much away yet. Probably means we’re about to get an answer soon.
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does Merlijn The Trader predict for Bitcoin?
Merlijn The Trader predicts Bitcoin could fall to around $33,000 if historical May peak patterns repeat, representing a potential 60.73% decline from current levels above $78,000.
What are Ted Pillows’ two scenarios for Bitcoin?
Ted Pillows sees Bitcoin either breaking above $78,000-$80,000 resistance to rally toward $86,000, or failing at resistance and correcting down to $70,000 or even $66,318.
Why does Merlijn think May is significant for Bitcoin?
Merlijn identified that Bitcoin peaked in May during 2014, 2018, and 2022, with each peak followed by drops of 61%, 65%, and 66% respectively, suggesting a recurring cyclical pattern.
