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Bitcoin’s price tumble over the weekend — with the asset briefly dropping to $93,029, its lowest level of the year — has sparked widespread discussion among analysts and executives across the industry. Many point to a combination of ETF outflows, long-term whale distribution, and global geopolitical uncertainty as the primary catalysts behind the downturn. Despite the pullback, experts maintain that the correction is a normal phase in crypto’s cyclical market behavior.
Bitcoin Drops to New 2025 Low as Crypto Market Sheds $500B
Bitcoin slipped under the $94,000 mark on Sunday, touching $93,029 before stabilizing slightly. According to CoinGecko, the broader crypto market capitalization declined from $3.7 trillion on Nov. 11 to around $3.2 trillion on Monday — signaling a significant market-wide retraction.
Ryan McMillin, CIO at Merkle Tree Capital, told Cointelegraph that the downturn isn’t caused by a single catalyst. Instead, several bearish elements are converging at once, creating a “stacked-pressure scenario” across the market.
Long-Term Holders Are Taking Profits After a Major Run
One of the most notable dynamics fueling the pullback is activity from long-term Bitcoin holders. On-chain data shows that investors who held BTC through its earlier cycles are beginning to distribute their coins.
According to McMillin, these older coins are “finally cashing in after an extraordinary run” and are entering the market during a period when liquidity is thinner and bids are softer. He added that the combination of aging supply distribution and a less favorable macro backdrop has created a more fragile environment.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Shift From Heavy Buying to Net Outflows
Executives also pointed to ETF flows as a key component of the sell-off. Earlier in the year, spot Bitcoin ETFs were some of the strongest buyers of BTC, absorbing billions in inflows and supporting price expansion.
However, those patterns have reversed.
McMillin notes that spot ETFs “have swung to net outflows” at the same time global markets have turned risk-off, partly due to delayed expectations for rate cuts. With fewer institutional inflows and a surge in investor caution, the Bitcoin market is facing headwinds that weren’t present six months ago.
Global Uncertainty Adds Pressure to Crypto Risk Appetite
Holger Arians, CEO of Banxa, emphasized that global geopolitical tensions and overextended tech valuations are contributing to risk aversion across markets. He said markets have been “running very hot” and that the broader environment is no longer as forgiving.
Arians explained that crypto, which sometimes moves independently from traditional markets, is currently behaving like a risk asset. “This is one of those periods where people are simply waiting, watching, and trying to make sense of a turbulent year,” he said.
Matt Poblocki of Binance Australia echoed this sentiment, noting that crypto’s volatility reflects its status as a maturing asset class heavily influenced by global events.
Market Makers and Four-Year Cycle Narratives Also Fuel Fear
On social platform X, several crypto executives offered additional theories.
Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Asset Management, suggested that persistent talk around the four-year crypto cycle has created a self-fulfilling prophecy, spooking traders into selling prematurely.
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, argued that market makers with “a major hole” in their balance sheets may be vulnerable to liquidation strategies, with aggressive traders intentionally driving prices lower to trigger cascading stops.
Analysts Say Sharp Corrections Are Normal — and Healthy
Despite the steep pullback, most experts emphasized that the core market structure remains strong.
“These kinds of sharp corrections are a normal part of a market cycle,” Poblocki said. He highlighted that retail investors are still engaged and are rotating into blue-chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than exiting the market entirely.
ETF outflows have softened, but not enough to signal a structural shift. Institutional participation remains strong, and retail investors appear to be acting more cautiously and maturely compared to earlier cycles.
Market Fundamentals Still Point Toward Long-Term Strength
Arians believes the downturn could reverse in the medium term as underlying fundamentals continue to strengthen. Regulatory clarity, increasing real-world use cases, and traditional financial institutions expanding into crypto remain encouraging signs.
“Even though prices feel soft, the infrastructure story underneath has never looked stronger,” Arians said. He pointed to rising stablecoin volumes, growing on-chain activity, and persistent developer momentum as signals that the next growth cycle is already being seeded.
Stronger Market Foundations Compared to Previous Cycles
McMillin agrees, aligning with macro analyst Jordi Visser’s outlook. Both suggest that while older Bitcoin holders are distributing, newer investors are absorbing that supply — and importantly, today’s market is far stronger than in previous years.
With improved infrastructure, deeper liquidity, and more institutional involvement, the current correction may feel sharp, but analysts say it is far from a sign of structural weakness.
