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Willy Woo expressed: In a macro cycle context, long term investors are still climbing towards their peak accumulation, which marks bottoms. Early signs to me that the bull market may continue into 2022 and BTC is in the process of breaking free from the 4 year internal cycle from the halvenings.
For clarity, Macroeconomics refers to behaviors of large sections of markets.
Community response: Did you also get early signs of a cataclysmic dump from $65K to $30K? If so, which on-chain metrics signaled this?
According to the 4 year cycle theory we need to hit a bottom in 2022 sometime. There’s nothing in the theory that says we can’t make a blow off top ATH in 2022. So both are possible. The question is how severe is the drawdown. I don’t see an 88% pull back unless we moon to 400k.
BTC’s Burst burst above the $50,000 level didn’t last long and chart patterns signal that its rally since July is at risk of fading.
Cycles seem to be getting longer and have lower trough-to-peak appreciation. That would eventually break four-year cycle and make BTC more palatable/investable which is what you’d want to see for BTC to become a broadly accepted global asset.
What do you mean the halving cycle is a myth? It does half every four years, there’s no debating that. Making something twice as hard to obtain new ones of, tends to also drive price up.
Imagine we get to a point when the parabolic blow off top happens at the halving. That would confuse a lot of traders of what to do.
As the market matures and adoption is more widespread, we may not see as many deep bear market cycles or insane bull market spikes. Volatility overall will decrease to something more akin to the gold market.
Halving of miner reward occurs ~ every 4 years for BTC (in ~2012 and 2016). BTC price peaks occurred in late 2013 and 2017, and each were followed by bear markets that lasted until the next halving. So, the question is, “will this 4-year pattern repeat”, with a peak in late 2021?
The parabolic movements from the halving cycles will slow or stop, and a more constant rate of increase will take over as institutions and new retail investors come on board. What a time to be alive.
Obviously it’s nice “timing” bear bottoms, waiting for the halving then riding the top as long as possible until pure peak, selling, then rinse/repeat. But we will eventually need to “flat line” like gold for BTC to become a global financial pillar.
