Standard Chartered is standing firm on its bold prediction that Bitcoin could soar to $500,000 by 2028, backed by a surprising new trend—governments and major institutions increasing their indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency. The bank’s head of digital assets, Geoffrey Kendrick, pointed to recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 13F filings as compelling evidence of growing institutional interest, despite a short-term dip in direct Bitcoin ETF investments.

In a note shared with the bank’s clients, Kendrick highlighted that while direct holdings in Bitcoin ETFs fell during the first quarter of 2025, the broader institutional appetite for Bitcoin has remained strong. He emphasized that this decline should not be mistaken for reduced interest in the asset itself. Instead, it reflects a shift in how institutions, particularly government entities, are gaining exposure to the digital currency.

According to the report, various government-backed institutions around the world have increased their holdings in Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. Strategy is widely recognized as one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, with over 576,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Because of this, purchasing shares in Strategy is often viewed as a proxy investment in Bitcoin, especially by institutions that are limited in their ability to hold crypto assets directly due to regulatory constraints.

One of the standout trends in the recent filings is the increased involvement of sovereign and state-backed entities. Notably, the Swiss National Bank, Norway’s Government Pension Fund, and South Korea’s public investment agencies all boosted their holdings in Strategy during the first quarter of 2025. Each of these institutions reportedly acquired MSTR stock equivalent to roughly 700 BTC. These are substantial positions, indicating a calculated move to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it.

In addition to these international players, several U.S. states also increased their stakes in Strategy. Kendrick’s analysis shows that states like Kentucky, New York, and North Carolina took similar steps to indirectly invest in Bitcoin by increasing their MSTR holdings. This growing interest from both domestic and international government bodies suggests a broader recognition of Bitcoin’s long-term value and resilience.

Kendrick argues that this wave of indirect investment is a strong signal of confidence, one that supports Standard Chartered’s earlier forecast made in February. At the time, he predicted that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 before the end of former President Donald Trump’s potential second term. That timeline puts the target within reach by the year 2028, just three years away.

To achieve this ambitious price point, Bitcoin would need to climb approximately 379% from its current price of around $104,359. While that may seem like a steep climb, Kendrick believes the recent accumulation by institutions and government-linked investors provides a compelling case for such a rally. He sees this trend as part of a larger shift in how traditional financial systems are beginning to embrace digital assets, not through direct ownership necessarily, but through strategic, stock-based exposure.

It’s also worth noting that Kendrick’s analysis comes at a time when the crypto market is navigating a period of increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the United States. Direct exposure to Bitcoin remains a complex issue for many institutions due to compliance concerns. As such, acquiring stock in a Bitcoin-heavy company like Strategy offers a regulatory workaround that still aligns with their investment goals.

While short-term volatility and ETF outflows may raise concerns among retail investors, the long-term positioning of these large institutions suggests that the smart money is betting on Bitcoin’s sustained growth. Kendrick’s report highlights a quiet but powerful trend that could shape the future of digital asset investment—one where government and institutional players take center stage not through headlines, but through carefully calculated moves in the stock market.

As institutional adoption continues to evolve, Standard Chartered’s forecast may no longer seem as far-fetched. If these investment trends continue, Bitcoin’s path to $500,000 by 2028 could become more than just a bold prediction—it might be a realistic outcome driven by growing confidence from some of the world’s most influential investors.