Bitcoin’s network might be humming near $107,000, but under the surface, miners are navigating one of their most difficult periods in more than a decade. Despite Bitcoin’s solid price levels and profits for most long-term holders, mining operations are seeing revenue sink to 2012 levels. And yet, they aren’t selling.

This paradox is setting the stage for a critical moment in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. As miners choose to hold rather than offload their reserves, the market is left wondering: could their restraint trigger the next Bitcoin breakout—or delay it entirely?

Miner Profits Hit Rock Bottom

According to data from Alphractal, there are three key reasons why miner profitability has plunged:

1. Bitcoin network fees are at a 12-year low. Total transaction fees paid to miners have dropped significantly due to lower on-chain activity, directly reducing one of their main revenue streams.

2. The Hash Rate is falling, but network difficulty remains high. Normally, as fewer machines contribute to the network, difficulty adjusts downward. However, that hasn’t happened yet, placing extra pressure on miners still operating.

3. Volatile hash rate creates instability. Many large mining firms are reportedly shutting down inefficient ASIC machines, which contributes to a fluctuating hash rate—another warning signal of potential miner stress.

These factors have combined to compress margins to their tightest levels in years. Despite high BTC prices, miners are earning significantly less from network participation than in previous cycles.

Miners Refuse to Sell Despite the Pressure

One of the most surprising developments is that, despite worsening conditions, Bitcoin miners are not rushing to liquidate their holdings. According to CryptoQuant data, miner flows to exchanges have dropped to a monthly low—just 795.5 BTC as of June 29.

Historically, miners have sold into rising prices or during periods of heavy network activity to secure profits. This time, even with BTC hovering around $107K, they’re choosing to hold. Why?

The answer lies in the Puell Multiple, a popular metric used to assess miner profitability. Currently at 1.2, it shows miners are still earning 20% above their long-term average income. In other words, although revenue has dropped, conditions aren’t yet bad enough to trigger widespread selling.

What This Means for Bitcoin’s Price Action

Miners holding rather than selling is generally a bullish sign for Bitcoin. It reduces sell-side pressure and gives the asset room to climb higher without facing major resistance from within the ecosystem.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin could gradually push through its consolidation zone and make a move toward $109,000. This aligns with current market structure and the wider expectation for a Q3 breakout. Stablecoin liquidity, institutional accumulation, and miner discipline all create an environment conducive to further upside.

However, the situation remains fragile. If mining economics continue to deteriorate—perhaps due to persistently low on-chain activity or rising operational costs—miners may have no choice but to liquidate some holdings. This would quickly increase selling pressure and potentially push BTC back down toward $104,000.

A New Mining Cycle or a Warning Sign?

This cycle is proving different in more ways than one. In previous years, miners were seen as reactive sellers, often accused of contributing to price volatility. In contrast, today’s miners appear more strategic. Their current restraint may reflect growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, or a calculated bet that prices will rise further in Q3.

For now, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals remain intact. Transaction volumes may be low, but long-term holders, institutional buyers, and even miners continue to demonstrate patience.

The big question is whether this collective holding pattern becomes the foundation for a new leg higher—or whether mounting pressure finally forces miners to act.

Conclusion

Miners are walking a fine line between shrinking profits and long-term conviction. While revenue metrics signal distress, behavior on the blockchain shows resilience. If miners stay the course and refuse to sell, Bitcoin could be poised for its next breakout toward $109K and beyond. But if that patience runs out, a retreat toward $104K may quickly follow.

As Q3 unfolds, all eyes will be on mining wallets—and the next move they make.