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Bitcoin’s signature four-year market cycle of dramatic surges followed by steep corrections may not be over yet, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of venture capital firm Sigma Capital. Speaking at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Budki said he expects a major market retracement of up to 70% within the next two years — a typical pattern seen throughout Bitcoin’s history.
Despite this bearish short-term view, Budki believes Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains intact, with a potential price target of $1 million per coin within the next decade.
Traders Don’t Understand Bitcoin’s True Utility, Says Budki
Budki attributed future volatility to a fundamental misunderstanding among traders about Bitcoin’s economic properties.
“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000,” Budki said. “The problem is that people don’t know its utility. When people buy assets they don’t understand, they’re the first to sell them in panic — that’s where the selling pressure comes from.”
Budki’s comments suggest that while Bitcoin’s price could experience sharp downturns, its underlying use case as a decentralized, scarce digital asset remains unaffected. He emphasized that speculative trading and herd behavior continue to dominate crypto markets, often amplifying price swings during both bullish and bearish phases.
A History of Cycles and Sharp Retracements
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has followed a four-year pattern tied to its halving events, where the mining reward is reduced by 50%. These halvings historically triggered massive bull markets followed by deep corrections of 60–80%.
For instance, after peaking at nearly $20,000 in late 2017, Bitcoin crashed over 80% in 2018. A similar trend occurred after the 2021 bull run, when BTC dropped from over $68,000 to around $16,000 the following year.
Budki believes the same pattern could repeat — a significant correction followed by another wave of long-term growth.
Bitcoin Still Has a $1 Million Future
Despite expecting a steep decline in the near term, Budki remains bullish on Bitcoin’s decade-long outlook. He predicts BTC could exceed $1 million per coin within 10 years, driven by expanding real-world adoption and continued recognition of its role as a store of value.
According to Budki, the next growth phase will be fueled by both speculative demand and genuine utility — particularly as Bitcoin finds broader use in payments, cross-border transfers, and institutional treasury holdings.
“User adoption will grow from price speculation and, more importantly, real-world Bitcoin use cases,” he said.
Debate Over Whether Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Still Matters
Budki’s comments reignite an ongoing debate among analysts about whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still applies in today’s market. Some, like Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argue that the cycle has effectively ended.
Hayes believes macroeconomic factors — such as global interest rates, liquidity conditions, and central bank policies — now play a greater role in determining Bitcoin’s price than its programmed supply schedule.
“Bitcoin’s price is influenced more by macroeconomic factors and less by cyclical patterns,” Hayes noted in a recent analysis.
In contrast, other experts maintain that the four-year rhythm remains a core feature of Bitcoin’s behavior. They point to halving-driven supply shocks and retail investor psychology as recurring forces behind market cycles.
Institutional Adoption Adds a New Dynamic
The increasing presence of institutional investors may be reshaping how these cycles unfold. Major financial entities — including governments, corporations, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and crypto-focused banks — now collectively hold over 4 million BTC, or roughly 20% of the total supply, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.
This growing institutional footprint has added layers of liquidity and price stability, but some analysts argue it could also lead to larger coordinated selloffs during market downturns.
Xapo Bank CEO: Bitcoin Still Viewed as Risk Asset
Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, believes Bitcoin’s cycles are far from over because investors still perceive the asset as risk-on, rather than purely as a store of value.
“The four-year cycle remains in play because investors continue to treat Bitcoin like a speculative asset,” Rocca explained.
Rocca’s comments highlight that Bitcoin’s behavior continues to mirror traditional markets, especially during macroeconomic uncertainty. Until it’s widely seen as a true hedge against inflation or market volatility, cyclical selloffs are likely to persist.
The Bottom Line: Cycles May Fade, But Volatility Won’t
Budki’s forecast of a potential 65–70% drawdown underscores that Bitcoin’s volatility remains part of its DNA — even as institutional adoption grows and the market matures. However, long-term believers argue that each downturn has historically laid the groundwork for new highs.
If Budki’s projections hold true, Bitcoin could face a major correction within the next two years, but investors who understand its fundamentals — scarcity, decentralization, and global accessibility — may see it as another opportunity to accumulate before the next bull cycle.
Whether the next correction takes Bitcoin to $70,000 or lower, the broader narrative remains: the crypto market is still cyclical, but the long-term outlook for Bitcoin continues to point higher.
