The cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements has long fascinated analysts, traders, and investors. From dramatic bull runs to crushing bear markets, the Bitcoin four-year cycle—traditionally tied to its halving events—has shaped much of the crypto market’s history. According to Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of Asia-Pacific, the cycle is “very likely” to continue playing out in some form, though it may not mirror the exact patterns of the past.

Ahmed shared his insights during an interview with Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore, one of the most influential crypto events in Asia. His remarks reignited the ongoing debate over whether Bitcoin’s famed cycle remains relevant as the market matures and institutional players become more involved.

The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle: A Brief Recap

At the heart of Bitcoin’s market rhythm is its halving event, which occurs roughly every four years. Each halving cuts the block reward for miners by 50%, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation. Historically, halvings have triggered a supply shock that often precedes massive price rallies, followed by corrections and prolonged bear markets.

• 2012 Halving: Sparked Bitcoin’s first major bull run, taking BTC from under $12 to over $1,000.

• 2016 Halving: Fueled the 2017 rally that pushed BTC close to $20,000 before the infamous 2018 crash.

• 2020 Halving: Preceded the 2021 bull market, where Bitcoin reached new highs above $69,000 before entering a deep bear phase.

• 2024 Halving: The most recent event in April 2024, with the market now watching closely to see if history repeats.

These historical cycles form the basis of the belief that Bitcoin operates on a predictable four-year rhythm. But Ahmed argued that while the mechanics may evolve, human emotion remains the true driver.

Human Emotion at the Core

“The reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Ahmed said. “It ultimately stems from people getting really excited and overextending themselves, and then you see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium.”

In other words, while Bitcoin’s supply mechanics provide a foundation, investor psychology plays an equally important role. FOMO (fear of missing out) during rallies and panic selling during downturns are key behavioral patterns that keep cycles alive.

Even as the market becomes more sophisticated, Ahmed believes these emotional responses will continue to drive cycles.

Institutional Influence May Smooth Volatility

Ahmed also noted that increasing institutional involvement in crypto could alter the dynamics of these cycles. Large-scale investors such as hedge funds, asset managers, and publicly traded companies have begun to play a more significant role in Bitcoin markets.

“You’ll see some of the volatility flag off,” Ahmed said. “But you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by human emotion.”

Institutions tend to have longer investment horizons and larger reserves, which can provide stability compared to retail-driven speculation. Still, their presence is unlikely to eliminate cycles altogether.

Analysts Split on the Cycle’s Relevance

The debate over whether the Bitcoin cycle is still valid has divided experts in recent months.

• Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics firm, said in August 2025 that Bitcoin’s price action may still be tracking its historic four-year halving cycle.

• Rekt Capital, a popular crypto analyst, argued that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 pattern, the market peak could occur in October 2025—around 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

• Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, took a more flexible view. In July, he stated: “I don’t expect Bitcoin’s price to follow the cycle as it has in the past. But I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”

This range of opinions underscores how unpredictable the maturing Bitcoin market has become.

Market Outlook: October Peak in Focus

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades just shy of its all-time high of $124,100, set in August 2025. The asset has surged over 11% in the past week, hitting $123,850, according to CoinMarketCap.

Some analysts suggest that October could mark the peak of this cycle if patterns repeat. Since 2013, the fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest, delivering an average return of nearly 79%, according to CoinGlass.

If history holds true, Bitcoin could see further upward momentum before year-end. However, skeptics argue that growing institutional involvement, evolving macroeconomic factors, and regulatory pressures could alter the familiar script.

A Cycle of Adaptation

Whether the Bitcoin cycle continues in its traditional four-year form or evolves into something new, the consensus seems to be that cycles—driven by both supply mechanics and human behavior—are not going away anytime soon.

Ahmed’s perspective highlights this balance: the emotional nature of markets ensures cycles will persist, but institutional growth may shape their intensity and duration.

For investors, the lesson is clear. While historical patterns can provide guidance, Bitcoin remains a dynamic and evolving asset. Navigating its cycles will require not only an understanding of past trends but also adaptability to new market realities.

Conclusion

The idea of the Bitcoin four-year cycle remains alive, though perhaps in a modified form. As Gemini’s Saad Ahmed put it, cycles are “very likely” to continue—just not always in the same way.

With October 2025 shaping up as a potential inflection point, the coming weeks could provide critical clues about whether Bitcoin’s legendary cycle still holds sway. Regardless of the outcome, the interplay between halving-driven supply shocks, institutional adoption, and human psychology will continue to define Bitcoin’s path forward.