Community Trust ScoreVerified
Bitcoin continued its downward slide on Friday, retreating toward $94,500 and adding pressure to an already fragile crypto market. The drop marks one of Bitcoin’s weakest points since mid-year, raising questions about whether the sector has entered a prolonged bearish phase. As traders cut risk exposure and sentiment weakens, the broader digital asset market is grappling with uncertainty and growing caution.
Against this backdrop, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley offered a striking assessment of current market conditions. According to him, the crypto market may have already been in a bear phase for six months — and investors might be closer to the end than the beginning.
Bitwise CEO Says the Four-Year Cycle Model Is Outdated
In a detailed post shared on X, Horsley argued that the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle — once considered a core part of crypto market theory — is no longer an accurate blueprint. He explained that the original model was built during a completely different era, before Bitcoin ETFs, before major institutions entered the space, and before the current U.S. political environment.
“We talk about four-year cycles, but the reality is that model is based on a bygone era of crypto,” Horsley said. He added that the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a pro-digital asset stance from President Trump’s administration have dramatically reshaped the market’s mechanics.
The crypto environment today includes new buyers, deeper liquidity structures, and more complex reasons for market movements. These factors, he explained, have fundamentally altered how Bitcoin behaves during corrections.
Is a New Bullish Phase Coming Soon?
Horsley believes that the shift in structure could mean good news for long-term investors. He suggested that the recent weakness may reflect an extended correction phase rather than a full market breakdown. According to him, the industry may have already endured most of the drawdown.
“I think there’s a pretty good chance that we’ve been in a bear market for almost six months now and are almost through it,” he commented. Despite the recent sell-off, he emphasized that market foundations appear stronger than ever.
From liquidity conditions to institutional interest, Horsley argues that the present setup could pave the way for a new bullish phase once selling pressure fades. But he also acknowledged that macroeconomic uncertainty continues to influence investor decision-making.
Crypto Stocks Fall as Broader Market Weakens
Alongside Bitcoin’s retreat, several publicly traded crypto-related firms also posted notable declines on Friday.
-
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), known for its extensive Bitcoin holdings, dropped 6%.
-
Gemini (GEMI) Space Station and Bullish (BLSH) slipped around 2%.
-
Coinbase (COIN) fell by 1%.
-
Mining company Bitmine Immersion Technologies traded 3% lower.
These declines reflect broader risk aversion across the digital asset sector as investors rebalance portfolios and reduce exposure to volatility.
Animoca Brands Co-Founder Highlights Liquidity Issues
Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands, echoed Horsley’s perspective but added another dimension: liquidity shortages. Speaking with CNBC, Siu noted that many investors are selling assets to cover financial obligations outside the digital asset market. “There’s less money in the system,” he said, attributing part of the recent downturn to liquidity drains.
He also pointed out that institutional investors — now major participants in the digital asset ecosystem — approach market cycles differently from long-time Bitcoin holders. Traditional institutions tend not to rely on the historical four-year cycle model when making decisions.
“People think Bitcoin is going to go down to $60,000 because of the four-year cycle,” Siu said. However, he believes institutions are more likely to view major dips as opportunities rather than triggers for panic.
Technical Conditions Show Bitcoin Under Pressure
Bitcoin’s chart has turned increasingly fragile. The asset recently tested support near $94,000, creating a new multi-month low. The daily chart shows a steady downtrend, reflecting consistent selling pressure throughout the week.
Trading volume has climbed during the decline, suggesting that many traders are exiting highly leveraged positions. Technical indicators show fading momentum, and Bitcoin remains below key moving averages.
Despite the weakness, BTC has shown signs of stabilization. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered to around $96,750, though it still records losses of about 4% over the past day and week. The next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can reclaim higher levels or if the correction deepens.
