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Bitcoin hit $63,700 Monday morning, capping a 2.7% weekend gain that has traders watching a packed week of U.S. economic data. It’s the highest level in two weeks, and the broader market seems to like it — total crypto market cap sits at $2.26 trillion, up 1.1% through Asian trading hours.
Ether is probably the bigger story right now. It jumped 14% over the past week and is closing in on $1,800, a move that’s hard to ignore when Bitcoin’s own weekly gains look comparatively modest. Altcoins are also broadly positive — Hyperliquid and Canton have been standout performers lately, though the source didn’t specify exact figures for either. The overall mood feels cautiously optimistic, but traders know what’s coming.
Fed Minutes, Jobs Numbers, and a New Chairman
The week’s calendar is dense, and each release carries real weight. Monday kicks off with the June S&P Global Services PMI, a snapshot of service-sector activity that often moves risk assets when it surprises. Tuesday brings ADP Employment Change data, which traders treat as a rough preview of Friday’s official payroll picture. Then Wednesday — probably the most watched day of the week — the Federal Reserve drops its meeting minutes.
These aren’t just any minutes. They’re the first set released under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and investors are genuinely uncertain about his tone. The question isn’t just what the committee decided — rates held steady — it’s how hawkish or dovish the internal debate actually was. Energy prices have been climbing, inflation isn’t fully tamed, and Warsh hasn’t given markets a clear read on where he stands. The minutes could change that fast.
Thursday piles on. Initial Jobless Claims come out, and they land alongside June Existing Home Sales data. The housing market has been sluggish, and any further softness there won’t help sentiment. Then Friday brings the International Energy Agency’s monthly report, which could move energy prices and feed back into inflation expectations almost immediately.
Labor Market Cracks and the $80 Trillion Stock Market
Here’s the number that’s probably getting underplayed: full-time U.S. employment dropped by 514,000 in June. That’s not a small dip — it’s the lowest employment figure since December 2024. The labor market has been the one thing keeping recession fears at bay, so a crack this size matters. It doesn’t mean a crash is coming, but it’s the kind of data point that makes the Fed’s job harder and gives bond markets something to chew on.
U.S. equities, meanwhile, are sitting at a record $80 trillion in total market capitalization — roughly 48% of global market cap. That’s a striking concentration, and it’s the backdrop against which earnings season is kicking off. SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq 100 this week, which adds its own layer of noise to what’s already a busy stretch for equity markets.
Crypto doesn’t exist in a vacuum here. When equities get volatile around macro data, Bitcoin tends to feel it, especially when institutional money is involved. The correlation isn’t perfect, but it’s real enough that traders watch the bond market and jobs data almost as closely as on-chain flows.
What Traders Are Actually Watching
The Fed minutes on Wednesday are basically the main event. Warsh’s approach to rate policy is still murky — he came in with a reputation as a hawk, but the committee’s first meeting under him didn’t produce any surprises. If the minutes read more hawkish than expected, risk assets could sell off. If they’re neutral or dovish, Bitcoin’s current momentum probably holds.
The IEA report on Friday is the kind of release that doesn’t always get crypto coverage, but it should. Higher energy prices feed inflation, inflation feeds Fed hawkishness, and Fed hawkishness feeds dollar strength. That chain of events isn’t great for Bitcoin in the short term.
And the labor market data — Thursday’s claims plus the June employment drop already in the books — will shape how nervous investors feel heading into the weekend. A 514,000 decline in full-time jobs is a big number. Unclear yet whether it’s a one-month blip or something stickier.
Bitcoin’s at $63,700. Ether’s near $1,800. The market cap is $2.26 trillion. The data starts rolling Monday.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin’s current price and recent performance?
Bitcoin reached $63,700 on Monday, a 2.7% gain over the weekend and its highest level in two weeks, while total crypto market cap stands at $2.26 trillion.
Why are the Federal Reserve minutes important for crypto markets this week?
The minutes mark the first Fed meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh and could clarify the committee’s stance on interest rates amid rising energy prices and inflation concerns.
