DraftKings Hits $3.1 Billion Prediction Markets Volume but Trails Kalshi by $14.8 Billion

DraftKings posted a 34% jump in its prediction markets’ annualized total volume, hitting $3.1 billion in May. The stock moved up 10% on the news.

The company dropped a Form 8-K to disclose the surge in its Predictions offering. Consumer volume climbed 24% to $1.3 billion in the same period. Worth noting: DraftKings only launched prediction markets in December 2025, so it’s basically a few months old in this space. That 34% growth sounds big. But the actual May volume — annualized at $3.1 billion — works out to roughly $258 million for the month itself. That’s a very different number than the headline figure, and it matters a lot when you stack it against the competition.

Not even close to Kalshi.

DraftKings vs. Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi alone processed $17.9 billion in May. The combined trading volume across established platforms went from $5 billion in September 2025 to around $24 billion by April 2026. DraftKings’ $258 million in actual monthly volume is a fraction of that. The gap is wide, and it’s probably wider than DraftKings’ press release makes it feel.

Sports drive most of the activity on these platforms — about 80% of Kalshi’s volume comes from sports contracts. Politics and crypto fill out most of the rest. DraftKings timed its disclosure to land during a stretch of major sporting events, including the World Cup and NBA Finals. Smart move. One estimate put World Cup prediction market activity alone at up to $2.5 billion. And DraftKings has something Kalshi and Polymarket don’t: an existing sportsbook customer base with millions of users already comfortable placing bets on sports outcomes. The company wants to convert those users into prediction market participants by year-end, going after a total market it sees as worth up to $80 billion.

Whether that conversion actually happens is unclear yet.

Federal License, Legal Fights, and the CFTC

DraftKings holds a federal license that lets it run prediction markets in 38 states, including some where sports betting is still illegal under state law. That’s a real structural advantage. The whole sector operates under CFTC oversight rather than state gaming regulators — and that federal framework is what gives platforms like DraftKings, Kalshi, and Polymarket the ability to reach users across state lines without chasing individual state licenses.

Related: CFTCs 267-Page Prediction Market Plan Leaves Polymarkets $34B Offshore Volume Untouched

But the legal picture is messy. Conflicting court rulings on whether sports contracts fall under federal or state jurisdiction could push the whole question to the Supreme Court. The CFTC has moved against several states — Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois among them — to block those states from going after prediction market platforms. Courts in Maryland and Massachusetts, on the other hand, sided with state regulators. So it’s kind of a patchwork right now, and nobody knows how it settles.

Kalshi is fighting multiple federal lawsuits. The legal pressure on the sector isn’t easing.

And DraftKings has its own industry friction to deal with. Both DraftKings and FanDuel left the American Gaming Association after the association came out against members offering prediction markets. That split says a lot about where the traditional sportsbook industry stands on all this — basically divided, with the big players going their own way.

Revenue Picture Stays Murky

Here’s the thing about volume numbers: they don’t equal revenue. DraftKings hasn’t said what it actually earns from prediction markets. Income comes from fees, not raw trading volume. The whole sector pulled in $31 million in fees in April, mostly from Polymarket. DraftKings’ cut of that? No details. The company didn’t disclose it.

So you’ve got a 34% volume jump, a 10% stock pop, and basically no clarity on what the business actually makes. That’s a gap investors will probably want filled at some point.

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Kalshi and Polymarket have spent years building out their platforms, expanding event categories beyond sports, and fighting legal battles that DraftKings is just now walking into. They’ve got deeper trading pools and more established user communities. DraftKings is betting its brand and its existing audience can close that gap fast. Maybe it can. Sports predictions are clearly the biggest driver in this market, and that’s DraftKings’ home turf.

But $258 million in actual monthly volume against Kalshi’s $17.9 billion is a long way to go. The sector generated $31 million in total fees in April.