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A former White House teleprompter operator got caught playing the prediction markets with information nobody else had. Gabriel Perez, who read presidential speech drafts before anyone else, used that access to bet on “mention markets” — contracts tied to whether specific words or phrases would appear in presidential addresses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission found him liable and ordered him to hand back $107,539.02 in profits.
That’s not all. Perez also owes a $65,000 civil penalty, must stop any further violations, and can’t trade on these markets for three years. The CFTC did note his cooperation cut the penalty down from what it might have been. No criminal charges were filed — this stayed civil. But the numbers alone are significant: $107K in gains from trades that, by any reasonable read, were never fair.
How the Trades Actually Worked
Between December 2025 and February 2026, Perez placed bets on KalshiEX, the regulated prediction market platform. The specific contracts he used were “mention market” contracts — basically, you wager on whether the president will say a particular word or phrase in a speech. Most traders are guessing. They’re looking at political context, past speech patterns, whatever public signals they can find.
Perez wasn’t guessing. He had already read the speeches.
His job as a teleprompter operator gave him access to nonpublic drafts of presidential addresses. He knew what was coming. That’s a pretty clear violation of the trust and confidence that comes with holding a White House position — and the CFTC concluded exactly that. While other market participants were estimating probabilities, Perez was basically looking at the answer key.
The CFTC’s enforcement action covered disgorgement of the full $107,539.02, the civil fine, the trading ban, and a cease-and-desist order. The cooperation credit he received probably matters — without it, the penalty could’ve been steeper.
Kalshi’s Role and the New Safeguards
KalshiEX didn’t just sit on the sidelines here. The exchange’s surveillance team flagged the unusual trading patterns and reported them to the CFTC. That cooperation was credited in the agency’s findings, and the CFTC didn’t find any fault with how Kalshi handled things during the relevant period.
But the case clearly exposed gaps. Kalshi has since rolled out enhanced measures — risk scoring for markets that carry higher insider or manipulation risk, employment verification for certain participants, and expanded whistleblower tools. These changes came after Perez’s trading window, which ran from December 2025 through February 2026. The CFTC was direct about the timing: it’s unclear whether earlier implementation would have stopped Perez.
That’s an honest admission, and it matters. Prediction markets are relatively new at this scale. Kalshi fought hard — including in federal court — for the right to offer these contracts in the U.S. Now it’s dealing with the practical reality that markets tied to government events can attract people with government access.
What the CFTC Said About Oversight
The agency put out an advisory in February that’s worth flagging here. It spelled out that designated contract markets — platforms like Kalshi — carry their own responsibility to maintain solid audit trails and run surveillance independently. The CFTC doesn’t just sit above and wait for referrals. It expects exchanges to police their own floors first, then coordinate with regulators when something breaks.
Kalshi’s quick identification of Perez’s trades fits that model. The exchange saw something off, reported it, and cooperated through the investigation. That’s probably why the CFTC was so clear in crediting the platform while still pressing forward on enforcement against Perez himself.
The broader question — and it’s one the industry probably can’t ignore — is how prediction markets handle insider risk when the underlying events involve government actors. Sports bettors can’t read the coach’s playbook in advance. But political prediction markets are, by design, tied to events where some people have advance knowledge. That’s a structural challenge. Kalshi’s new risk scoring and employment verification steps are a start, but they came after the fact.
Perez’s $107,539.02 in profits gets surrendered. His $65,000 penalty gets paid. And for three years, he’s out of the market entirely.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Gabriel Perez profit from the prediction market trades?
Perez made $107,539.02 in profits from trading on KalshiEX’s “mention market” contracts using nonpublic information from presidential speech drafts, and was ordered to surrender the full amount.
What new measures did KalshiEX put in place after the incident?
KalshiEX introduced risk scoring for markets with high insider or manipulation risk, employment verification for certain participants, and expanded whistleblower tools — all implemented after Perez’s trading period ended.
Why It Matters
This case highlights the ongoing scrutiny of insider trading practices within prediction markets, particularly as they gain traction among investors seeking to capitalize on political events. The enforcement action by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission underscores the importance of maintaining market integrity and transparency, which are vital for fostering investor confidence in these nascent trading platforms. As prediction markets continue to evolve, regulatory bodies may increasingly focus on the intersection of insider information and speculative trading, potentially shaping future market dynamics.




