• This is the 4^th crash by 50% in 4 years for BTC
• BTC is a 10-to-20 year investment
• BTC correlated with long duration equities
• Will there be no more 4-year cycles

Pomp Expressed:  Bitcoin has officially fallen 50% since the all-time high of $69,000. This is the 4th time that bitcoin has dropped 50% in the last 4 years.

Mixed Community Reaction:  Volatility is the price of exponential growth.  It’s a no brainer. When y-axis is logarithmic, volatility will look big on linear. Was never supposed to be a straight line to moon. Can’t reach zero to infinity without volatility. Bitcoin still making blocks w/ hash rate at ATH. Feast the fucking dip, volatility is good.

BTC is a 10-20 year investment. Expecting anything else is just doing Vegas. Opportunity to buy low, stack SATS. Don’t miss this everyone. After next halving most people will find it hard to buy SATS. If you think you ‘lost’ in a correction you shouldn’t be investing anyway.

I doubt Bitcoin will exist in any recognizable form in 20 years.

It should bother BTC HODLers that BTC seems highly correlated with long duration equities, and falls when the Fed removes liquidity. Just as in the last Fed tightening cycle (2016-2018), BTC will fall as int rates rise and QT begins. It’s a high beta long duration asset.

You have been crying for BTC as an inflation hedge everyday well it is not and the price movement exactly tells us that it’s just another risk asset moving in line with overall equity markets.

So, the volatility is a feature, not a bug? But I thought institutional adoption was supposed to dampen vol? Also, while the % drawdown is on par w/ earlier bear markets, the nominal price decline (approx $34k) & the total market cap destruction are orders of magnitude larger.

There have been many alternate currency in the US over history from banks, companies, and states. EVERY one went bust.  Crypto is a meaningless gimmick applied to currencies.  A currency only endures based on the full faith and credit of the government backing it.

So, you’re saying BTC is USELESS as a “store of value”, even after 13 years then Pomp? It’s about as useful as a bank with the vault door left open, isn’t it? With a sign on it saying “take ½ our stuff”? What else is it useless at? Is it polluting too? And slow? Unscalable?

You have no idea where the bottom is, just like people saying it will hit 100k by the end of 2021 had no idea where the top would be. It will fall, it will probably rebound, there is absolutely nothing you can use to get more specific with any credibility.

Let’s face it, there are no more 4-year cycles. There are simply shorter bull and bear markets. Looking like bull and bear markets are lasting 3 to 6 months. Bulls will be back Q2, 2022 No biggie. Just load up if you’ve got some cash on the side lines.