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Raoul Pal isn’t buying the “crypto is dead” argument. Not even a little.
The Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs executive pushed back hard on the idea that money is rotating out of digital assets and into AI-driven tech stocks. His case is pretty straightforward: look at the numbers. Bitcoin has climbed roughly 318% since the 2022 liquidity-cycle low — the point when FTX’s collapse dragged the price down to around $15,700. The Nasdaq 100, over that same stretch, is up about 187%, landing near 30,660. So if capital was fleeing crypto for chips and AI names, it’s doing a lousy job showing up in the data.
Bitcoin was trading near $65,800 at the time of his comments, down roughly 2.7% over the prior 24 hours. Still well off its all-time high of $126,080. But Pal’s point isn’t that Bitcoin is surging right now — it’s that the longer arc looks better than most people want to admit.
Liquidity Cycles, Not Narratives
Pal’s core argument is that liquidity cycles drive prices. Not headlines. Not the AI hype cycle. Not whatever narrative is dominating financial Twitter on a given Wednesday. He’s been building that framework since he founded Global Macro Investor back in 2005, and he’s not backing off it now.
The recent dip, in his view, is a mid-cycle correction. That’s it. Not a structural break, not a sign that Bitcoin is losing relevance. Just the kind of pullback that happens when you’re in the middle of a broader liquidity expansion and markets get choppy.
He also thinks Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount relative to where liquidity conditions would normally put it. His models, he says, point to a higher target if financial conditions ease. Unclear exactly what level he has in mind — the source didn’t specify a price target — but the direction is clear enough.
What’s Weighing on Markets Right Now
The backdrop isn’t exactly calm. US equities took a hit around the same time, with over $500 billion in market value wiped out shortly after the open on one particularly rough session. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all fell. Analysts at Trading Economics flagged the broad-based decline across major indices.
Two things seem to be driving the jitters. First, a hawkish Federal Reserve. The ADP’s May private-sector jobs report came in at 122,000 net additions — above expectations — which probably gives the Fed more room to keep rates elevated. More rate pressure means tighter financial conditions, which tends to be rough for high-beta assets. Bitcoin is about as high-beta as it gets.
Second, stalled US-Iran negotiations added geopolitical noise to an already twitchy market. That kind of uncertainty doesn’t help sentiment, especially when investors are already nervous about rates.
And here’s the thing Pal has been flagging for a while now: Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has gotten tighter over the past year. When stocks fall hard, Bitcoin tends to fall harder. So the same macro forces squeezing equities are squeezing crypto. That’s not a new dynamic, but it’s become more pronounced.
The Pushback on Pal’s View
Not everyone’s convinced. Skeptics have two main complaints.
First, they say his starting point — the FTX-crash low near $15,700 — is cherry-picked. Start the clock somewhere else, and the comparison looks different. That’s a fair methodological gripe, and it’s the kind of thing that gets debated every time someone pulls out a “since the bottom” chart.
Second, some analysts think the capital-flow shift toward AI is real and structural. The argument goes that the excitement around large language models and semiconductor demand has fundamentally changed where growth investors want to put money. Pal basically rejects that framing. He’d say liquidity conditions matter more than sector rotation stories, and that when global liquidity expands, high-beta assets — Bitcoin included — tend to benefit regardless of what’s hot in tech.
Bitcoin’s market cap still sits above $1.3 trillion. That’s not a niche asset. And Pal’s broader point — that dismissing crypto based on a rough few months ignores the cycle-level performance — is at least worth taking seriously before writing the obituary.
The ADP’s 122,000 jobs figure for May came in above expectations.
Hub: Bitcoin price, news, and analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has Bitcoin gained since its 2022 low near $15,700?
Bitcoin has risen roughly 318% from its 2022 liquidity-cycle low of approximately $15,700, trading near $65,800 per Raoul Pal’s analysis.
What is Raoul Pal’s background and why does his view get attention?
Pal is the founder of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, and a former Goldman Sachs executive; he has focused on macroeconomic and liquidity-cycle analysis since founding Global Macro Investor in 2005.
