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Profitable spending by short-term holders covered roughly 12% of tokens tracked by Glassnode by late October, down from 80% in late September, a November 4 report shows.
The decline marks a shift in behavior among recent altcoin buyers, who moved from realizing gains to accepting losses. Glassnode monitors over 300 tokens using the short-term-holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) to track whether holders sell at a profit or loss.
Shift from Profit-Taking to Loss-Taking
In late September, a spot-led rotation into altcoins saw many recent holders sell for a profit. By the end of October, typical tracked tokens saw short-term holders selling at a small loss.
The STH-SOPR acts as a binary indicator: a reading above 1 signifies profit, while below 1 signifies a loss. The 12% figure represents the proportion of tokens where short-term holders remained profitable. The majority accepted prices below their acquisition cost.
Loss realization does not confirm that selling pressure is exhausted or that further weakness is imminent; it simply documents that recent buyers are exiting at a deficit. This contrasts with the widespread profit-taking seen in September.
Neutral Breadth in Altcoin Season Index
BlockchainCenter data offers a different view. Its November 4 snapshot placed the 90-day Altcoin Season Index at 41, comparing a top-50 universe of eligible coins against Bitcoin, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens.
An “altcoin season” occurs when 75% of eligible coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. A reading of 41 sits in the neutral band of 26 to 74, meaning fewer than half of the major coins beat Bitcoin over the last three months.
Tokens can rise in dollar terms while still trailing Bitcoin if Bitcoin rises faster. Thus, the neutral reading reflects relative underperformance rather than absolute price declines. Similarly, loss-making spending can coexist with stronger relative returns over longer periods.
These datasets measure different metrics. Glassnode focuses on realized outcomes for recent buyers across 300+ tokens, while BlockchainCenter tracks relative price performance for a top-50 group over 90 days. They cannot be combined or interpreted as a single group.
Neither measure establishes fresh demand or a market bottom. Glassnode’s outlook remains conditional on Bitcoin holding support. A broader recovery would require improved spending profitability and an expanding share of coins beating Bitcoin.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a 12% profit share indicate for altcoin holders?
It indicates that by late October, short-term holders were profitable in only about 12% of the 300+ tokens tracked by Glassnode, down from 80% in late September.
How does the Altcoin Season Index measure market performance?
It measures the relative performance of a top-50 universe of coins against Bitcoin over 90 days. A reading of 41 on November 4 places the index in a neutral band, showing fewer than half of eligible coins outperformed Bitcoin.
