Bitcoin May See 10% Rise in Early January, Historical Patterns Indicate

In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) faced significant challenges, despite a major bull run earlier in the year that was disrupted by a crash in October. As the market sentiment remains predominantly bearish, new analysis suggests Bitcoin typically does not remain negative after the New Year. Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson noted that historically, Bitcoin tends to perform positively in early January.

Wedson highlighted in a recent post on social media platform X that Bitcoin’s market behavior around the New Year often supports a short-term bullish outlook. Historically, the week following December 31 has resulted in negative returns only three times, suggesting a roughly 66% chance of at least a 10% gain in the first week of January. This trend appears consistent even after weak year-end periods, such as those in 2022, where Bitcoin initially dropped but quickly rebounded.

Wedson further elaborated on Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior from one halving to the next. He stated that Bitcoin typically records about 109 to 110 weeks where the transition from Sunday to Monday begins positively. However, he also noted an increase in weeks starting with declines, estimating around 100 such weeks in the current cycle, which complicates short-term trading strategies. He identified 2025 as particularly challenging, with only 21 weeks beginning positively compared to 31 starting with declines. This pattern, according to his analysis, indicates suboptimal timing for accumulating Bitcoin during that period.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 was relatively stable, ending the year down only 10%. This was viewed as favorable compared to the severe downturns experienced in previous years like 2018 and 2022.

Supporting a potential positive outlook for January, on-chain data shows low selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Junior reported that the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Distribution Pressure Index has entered the accumulation zone, indicating reduced selling activity. This index’s Z-score is currently at -1.628, below the threshold that signals low distribution.

Adler noted a temporary spike in selling on December 10-11, when long-term holders increased their spending, which then subsided quickly. Since then, selling activity has remained low. Adler stated that the seven-day average of long-term holder spending has fallen to about 221 BTC, while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) stands at 1.13, suggesting holders are not in a rush to sell their assets.

As the New Year approaches, market participants will closely monitor whether Bitcoin’s historical pattern of gains in early January will persist, especially given the current market conditions.