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Bitcoin is set to face more challenges, according to Michael Terpin, author of “Bitcoin Supercycle” and a well-known voice in the crypto sector. He believes the price could drop to between $39,000 and $55,000 before a recovery — and investors hoping for a quick rebound are deluding themselves.
Terpin bases his forecast on what he calls the “Four Seasons of Bitcoin” model. The central idea: the four-year cycles tied to the halving — the event that halves the rewards given to miners — create regular and predictable supply shocks. Each cycle has its phases. According to him, we have yet to endure the toughest one. He clearly states that “hoping a downturn lasts only six weeks is absurd.” A final stage of pain is necessary, he argues, to purge the market of those looking to sell quickly and poorly.
We’re not at the bottom yet.
The Law of Diminishing Losses and the Target Range
Terpin’s analysis relies on what he calls the law of diminishing returns and losses. Essentially: each cycle sees less severe percentage corrections than the previous one. Bitcoin’s historical declines have often approached 80 to 85%. In his book, he predicted a more moderate correction, between 60 and 70% from the peak of the current cycle. This gives a target around $42,000. In a scenario of full capitulation, the price could hit $40,000.
The range he targets: between $39,000 and $55,000.
This isn’t a catastrophic prediction. It’s more a cold reading of past cycles applied to the current cycle, the sixth in Bitcoin’s history. Terpin sees this as a normal, painful but necessary phase. He remains a seller in the short term while being clearly optimistic in the long term — which isn’t necessarily contradictory if one believes in the model.
Institutional investors, on the other hand, won’t buy until they have confirmations. Terpin thinks they will wait for clear signs that the selling pressure is truly exhausted before embarking on massive purchases. No clear signal, no fresh money. This is probably one of the major brakes on a quick rebound.
$180,000 in 2029, $1 Million in 2033?
In the long term, Terpin is much more enthusiastic. For the cycle ending in 2029, he sees a potential peak around $180,000 — and up to $300,000 if the bullish momentum really picks up speed. These are dream figures, but they fit into a logic of regular cycles that he believes will remain valid for the next two decades.
Looking even further, he estimates that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033.
Too optimistic? Perhaps. But the logic behind it is the programmed scarcity of the network. Each halving mechanically reduces the issuance of new bitcoins. And if demand remains — or increases — the compressed supply does its work on the price. This is the core of Terpin’s thesis, and it’s not really a new argument, but he structures it with quite rare precision.
He also emphasizes a point that many investors miss: not trying to predict the exact bottom. It’s a classic trap. The market can remain irrational longer than a portfolio can remain solvent — and trying to time the trough within $100 is risky. Terpin prefers to talk about ranges, not surgical targets.
The growing maturity of the Bitcoin market also plays a role in his model. The larger the capitalization, the less brutal the percentage corrections tend to be. This is a structural evolution that Terpin has followed cycle after cycle. And it aligns with what we observe: the crashes of 2018 and 2022 were violent, but less extreme than those of 2011 or 2013.
Terpin envisions that after these next two decades of four-year cycles, Bitcoin will enter what he calls a supercycle — a phase of long-term stabilization where oscillations become less pronounced.
For now, we’re far from it. The market is seeking its floor, institutions are watching, and Terpin is waiting for $40,000.
Hub: Bitcoin: price, news, and analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Terpin’s short-term price prediction for Bitcoin?
Terpin targets a range between $39,000 and $55,000, with a possible dip to $40,000 during a capitulation phase, before a rebound.
What is Terpin’s “Four Seasons of Bitcoin” model?
It’s a model based on the four-year halving cycles, dividing each cycle into distinct phases including a necessary “pain” phase before recovery.
What peak does Michael Terpin predict for the 2029 cycle?
He sees a potential peak around $180,000, possibly reaching $300,000 if momentum accelerates, and mentions a possible $1 million by 2033.
