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A Wisconsin Republican wants to shut lawmakers out of prediction markets entirely. Representative Bryan Steil dropped the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18, targeting members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children — basically anyone close enough to a lawmaker to hear something they shouldn’t.
The bill isn’t coming out of nowhere. Steil chairs the House Administration Committee and spent earlier this year pushing the Stop Insider Trading Act through the same chamber. The new measure builds on that work, extending the logic to prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users wager real money on government policy outcomes. If you know which way a vote’s going before the public does, that’s not really a bet — it’s a payday. Steil’s bill would make that payday illegal and expensive.
Penalties aren’t soft. Violators face a $2,000 fine or 10% of the transaction value — whichever hits harder — and they’d forfeit any net gains from the bet entirely. Walk away from office without paying? The Department of Justice can pursue civil enforcement. It’s a tighter net than most congressional ethics rules tend to be.
No Loopholes for Fines Either
One specific provision closes a gap that’s easy to imagine getting exploited. The bill bars lawmakers from using official allowances, Senate expense accounts, or political donations to cover any fines they rack up. The money has to come from their own pocket. Members who resign or retire mid-process don’t get a clean exit either — DOJ civil actions follow them out the door.
That’s a meaningful addition. Congressional ethics fines have a long history of getting absorbed quietly into campaign infrastructure or office budgets. Steil’s bill seems written by someone who anticipated that workaround.
Senate Already Moving on Similar Ground
Steil’s bill isn’t the only one circling this issue. Back in March, a bipartisan Senate group — Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff — put forward the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. That bill goes after trades involving nonpublic information across prediction platforms more broadly, not just congressional betting. It’s a wider net, but it targets the same underlying problem.
And there’s the House’s PREDICT Act, which extends restrictions to officials’ family members, mirroring what Steil’s legislation does on the congressional side. Multiple bills, multiple chambers, multiple sponsors from both parties. That’s either a sign of genuine momentum or a sign that everyone wants credit for the same idea and nobody wants to compromise.
Bipartisan support is probably the deciding factor here. Prediction markets have fans and critics scattered across both parties, and the politics of regulating them are murky. A Republican chair pushing ethics restrictions on Congress is a somewhat unusual posture, which might actually help it move.
Kalshi and Polymarket Already Tightening Controls
The platforms named in the bill haven’t been sitting still. Kalshi rolled out risk scoring, employment checks, and whistleblower channels — all aimed at flagging users who might be trading on nonpublic information. It’s a compliance-forward move, and probably a smart one given the regulatory attention the sector’s been drawing.
Polymarket went a different direction. The platform partnered with Chainalysis to build an on-chain surveillance system designed to monitor transactions and catch patterns that look like insider activity. On-chain surveillance is harder to game than self-reported employment checks, so the two approaches are pretty complementary even if the platforms are competitors.
Neither company has said publicly whether Steil’s bill would hurt their business. That’s unclear. A ban on congressional betting probably doesn’t move the needle much on revenue — lawmakers aren’t the core user base for either platform. But the regulatory signal matters. If Congress passes something here, it’s an opening for broader rules down the line.
Prediction markets have grown fast. The idea of wagering on election outcomes, policy votes, or economic data used to sit in a legal gray zone. Now it’s a real industry with real money flowing through it, and real scrutiny from people who write laws for a living.
Whether the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act clears committee, survives floor votes in both chambers, and lands on a president’s desk is genuinely uncertain. The Senate bill from March hasn’t moved visibly since its introduction. The PREDICT Act’s status is similarly unclear. Steil’s bill is new as of June 18.
Kalshi’s whistleblower channel has reportedly already received submissions, per the platform’s own disclosures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act actually ban?
It bans members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing bets on government policy outcomes through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
What’s the fine for breaking the rule?
Violators face a $2,000 fine or 10% of the transaction value, whichever is larger, and must forfeit any net gains from the bet.
