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A recent analysis has sparked renewed debate over whether cryptocurrency investors should hold onto tokens received through airdrops or sell them immediately. Data from crypto trader Didi reveals that most tokens distributed in airdrops experience substantial losses post-launch, challenging the notion that holding is the best approach. This discussion gains relevance as market participants reassess strategies in light of evolving dynamics within the crypto sector.
In a recent social media post, Didi detailed personal experiences with airdrops over the past year, showing that nearly all tokens had depreciated significantly after their launch. Notable examples include the M3M3 token, which plummeted 99.64%, Elixir falling 99.50%, and USUAL dropping 97.67%. Major projects were not immune, with Magic Eden declining 96.6%, Jupiter falling 75.9% from its token generation event (TGE) price, and Monad decreasing by 39.13%. Among all the tokens reviewed, only Avantis recorded a gain, increasing by 30.4%.
Didi reflects on the financial landscape by stating, “Out of the 30 airdrops I’ve received since December 2024, only one is trading slightly above its TGE price today. Yet, selling an airdrop at launch somehow makes you a ‘traitor.’ Let’s be honest about the game we’re playing. We’re all here to make money. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying to themselves.” The trader argues that holding altcoins long-term is a strategy with low probability for success, as historical data suggests potential losses are more likely than sustained gains. Didi advises prioritizing capital preservation, noting, “Profits are only real once they’re realized.”
Industry-wide research seems to support these conclusions. Memento Research’s analysis of 118 token generation events in 2025 found that 84.7% of tokens are now trading below their initial valuation. Specifically, 65% of these tokens have lost approximately half their value, while over half have seen declines of 70% or more. The report highlights that projects with high fully diluted valuations (FDVs) at launch performed poorly. Of the 28 launches with an FDV of $1 billion or more, none are currently above their initial price.
The report further explains, “When you split the year by starting FDV quartiles, the pattern is clear: the cheapest and lowest FDV launches were the only category with a meaningful survival rate (40% green) and a relatively mild median drawdown (~-26%), while everything above mid-pack basically got repriced into the floor with median losses of ~-70% to -83% and almost no greens.” Analysts suggest that numerous crypto projects aspire to billion-dollar valuations regardless of their maturity or utility, leading to instant market corrections once trading begins. One analyst bluntly stated, “Whoever isn’t selling most of these drops at TGE doesn’t understand how valuation works.”
Investor enthusiasm for airdrops is waning in 2025 due to structural issues, as many argue that the airdrop model has become increasingly complicated and exclusive. Commentator Maran illustrated the shift by comparing past and present airdrop mechanics. Previously, airdrops required minimal participation, such as wallet connection, and distributed relatively large amounts. In contrast, 2025 has seen projects implement stricter eligibility requirements, such as lengthy engagement periods and technical prerequisites, making participation more challenging.
“Airdrops were easier to access before with less effort needed,” Maran noted. Another analyst, Zamza Salim, criticized the current state of airdrops, pointing out that Sybil attacks have undermined several high-profile distributions despite anti-farming measures. “Airdrop meta in 2025 is cooked. Don’t waste months grinding for scraps while farmers take 20%,” Salim remarked.
Overall, recent data reveals a recurring trend of poor post-launch performance among airdropped tokens, accompanied by broader challenges within the airdrop model itself. While some tokens manage to maintain or increase their value over time, the mix of high initial valuations, market adjustments, and changing distribution methods has introduced significant uncertainty into outcomes.
Looking ahead, industry participants and analysts will likely continue to weigh the pros and cons of holding versus selling airdropped tokens, as they navigate the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investing and airdrop mechanics.
