Uniswap (UNI) has experienced a volatile journey throughout 2025, with mixed signals emerging from various market indicators that both excite and caution traders. After a significant decline of 74% from a peak of $19.47 in December 2024 to a low of $4.55 in April 2025, UNI has been showing signs of recovery since mid-May. However, the road to a potential $8 resistance level is proving complex, as conflicting data points paint a nuanced picture of the token’s near-term outlook.

Since mid-April, on-chain activity for Uniswap has been gradually increasing. The 7-day moving average of transaction counts reveals a consistent rise, suggesting that demand and usage of the decentralized exchange’s native token are strengthening. This uptick in transaction volume was also reflected in May and June trading volumes, which were notably higher compared to April. Yet, towards late June and early July, there was a noticeable tapering in trading volume, raising questions about whether this momentum can be sustained.

Delving deeper into Uniswap’s trading dynamics, futures and spot market activities provide contrasting insights. Retail futures activity, which tracks traders’ frequency and position size, often spikes during market tops, signaling overextension. This pattern was evident during December 2024 and January 2025, and again appeared elevated in recent weeks, hinting at a potential short-term top or at least increased speculative activity. On the flip side, the spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD), which measures net buying pressure in the spot market, has remained bullish since mid-May. A positive and rising 90-day spot CVD indicates that market orders favor buying over selling, possibly outweighing the caution signaled by futures activity.

Technical chart indicators further contribute to the mixed narrative. The daily price chart for UNI shows bullish momentum with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above the neutral 50 mark and the price consistently above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages—classic signs of upward price pressure. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is negative at around -0.1, signaling capital outflows and suggesting that despite the price strength, investors might still be pulling funds from the asset. This divergence between price action and money flow indicates market uncertainty, where bullish buying and selling pressure coexist.

All these signals converge on a critical resistance level at $8, which appears to be a key battleground for Uniswap. This zone could trigger heightened volatility as market participants weigh their next moves. For swing traders, a clear break and close above $8, which then holds as support, might present a lucrative long entry point. However, given the persistent capital outflows and heightened futures activity, there is also a tangible risk of a bearish reversal, especially if price fails to sustain above this resistance.

Investors and traders should therefore approach Uniswap with a balanced perspective. The bullish spot market activity and strong on-chain demand suggest that there is genuine interest and potential for continued upward movement. Yet, the persistent retail futures activity and capital outflows warrant caution, highlighting the possibility of short-term pullbacks or increased volatility. This calls for strategic risk management, particularly near the $8 resistance level, where market sentiment is likely to be tested most intensely.

In summary, Uniswap’s path to reclaiming higher price levels is paved with mixed technical and on-chain signals. While indicators point toward growing demand and a generally positive trend, conflicting data on trading volumes, futures positions, and capital flows emphasize the need for traders to stay vigilant. The $8 level stands as a crucial marker—breaking it could ignite further gains, but failure to do so might invite a correction. Therefore, a cautious but attentive approach will best serve those engaging with UNI in the coming weeks.