Ripple’s XRP remains in a tight trading range as investors and traders hold their positions, awaiting an important update in the ongoing legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With a crucial court deadline fast approaching, market participants are cautious, balancing optimism with uncertainty.

Over recent months, XRP’s price action has been muted, reflecting a market caught in a waiting game. Despite low trading volumes, futures open interest remains notably high, indicating that many traders are prepared for a significant move, whether up or down.

Trading Activity Shows Mixed Signals

Since peaking in December, XRP’s daily spot trading volume has dropped considerably, currently standing at around $5 billion—much lower than the $70 billion spikes seen during earlier rallies. This reduced activity signals that retail participation is calmer, with fewer impulsive moves.

However, open interest in XRP futures contracts continues to hold steady at over $4 billion. This suggests that many traders are maintaining leveraged positions, anticipating a potential price breakout tied closely to regulatory developments. This unusual combination of low volume but high futures interest highlights a market readying itself for volatility.

The SEC’s Role Remains Central

The biggest driver of XRP’s current cautious stance is the ongoing legal dispute with the SEC. Ripple Labs has been fighting accusations that XRP is an unregistered security, and the case has dragged on for years. Now, with a court-ordered deadline set for June 16th, investors are closely watching for any updates regarding settlement talks between Ripple and the SEC.

Previously, progress stalled after a judge denied the SEC’s request for an early ruling, and the agency’s tendency to file last-minute motions has kept the market on edge. If the SEC withdraws its appeal or agrees to a settlement, it could dramatically improve XRP’s regulatory outlook. This would likely boost hopes for XRP-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which investors see as a pathway to wider adoption and price gains.

Market sentiment reflects this optimism, with betting markets currently giving an 88% chance of XRP ETF approval by the end of the year.

Price Nears Key Resistance Levels

Technically, XRP is consolidating near the middle of its Bollinger Bands, a tool used to measure volatility and price trends. The price sits around $2.25, close to the midline after failing to break above the upper resistance band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at about 49, showing no clear momentum toward being oversold or overbought.

Volume remains subdued, with around 16 million XRP traded recently, underscoring the indecision gripping the market ahead of the SEC declaration.

If XRP manages to push above the critical $2.38 resistance level, it could fuel a retest of $2.60, signaling renewed bullish strength. On the other hand, a drop below $2.10 may lead to further losses as sellers gain control.

Outlook: Cautious but Ready for Action

For now, XRP is treading carefully within a defined range, reflecting the market’s wait-and-see approach. Both buyers and sellers appear hesitant to commit fully until more clarity emerges from the regulatory front.

The upcoming SEC court update is likely to act as a catalyst, potentially triggering increased volatility and decisive price action. Traders are advised to watch key levels closely and prepare for swings that could break XRP out of its current pattern.

In summary, XRP’s future in the near term hinges largely on the legal developments surrounding Ripple Labs. The cryptocurrency market is poised, waiting for news that could either lift XRP toward new highs or send it slipping lower. Until then, cautious trading within the range will likely continue.