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Bitcoin’s price drop from its August peak above $124,000 has stirred conversations across the crypto community. While some traders are worried that the decline signals the start of a downturn, others believe it’s a temporary pullback in a broader upward trend. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stands in the latter group, confidently predicting that the market is still moving toward its final phase.
Adler’s outlook is based on Bitcoin’s past performance during halving cycles, where the market’s strongest rallies tend to end more than 500 days after the event. According to his calculations, Bitcoin’s final surge could occur between October and November 2025, setting up the stage for a potential all-time high.
Long-Term Holders Sell, But Institutions Step In
Earlier this year, Bitcoin faced selling pressure from long-term holders. Major sell-offs were observed near price points of $70,000, $98,000, and $117,000, creating waves of uncertainty. However, Adler highlights that institutional investors have been actively absorbing the supply, helping to stabilize the market.
“This behavior points to strength rather than weakness,” Adler explains. “Even if momentum appears slower, demand from large players suggests the broader bull trend remains intact.”
This trend aligns with previous cycles where large investors have stepped in during sell-offs to build positions, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s continued rise.
Historical Patterns Suggest Major Price Move Ahead
Bitcoin’s past cycles offer clues for the road ahead. Historically, the market’s peak tends to occur when prices reach around 11 times the average cost basis of long-term holders. If this holds true, Adler believes Bitcoin could form a new all-time high in the next two months.
With many long-term holders having already sold portions of their holdings, the market is likely being reshaped by fresh institutional investments. Adler’s analysis suggests that this combination of accumulated supply and renewed demand may fuel Bitcoin’s final push before the market shifts gears.
A Period of Uncertainty for Traders
Despite the optimism from analysts like Adler, uncertainty remains widespread among traders and investors. Some are cautious, viewing Bitcoin’s recent decline as a sign that the rally is losing steam. Others believe it’s a natural correction that sets the stage for another surge in price.
For now, Bitcoin’s price action is being closely monitored as traders try to determine whether the market is nearing exhaustion or preparing for its last euphoric climb.
What This Means for Investors
The current environment presents both risks and opportunities. Those who believe the bull market still has room to run are accumulating positions, particularly at lower price points created by the recent decline. On the other hand, some are choosing to lock in profits after Bitcoin’s meteoric rise throughout the year.
Adler’s forecast offers reassurance to investors betting on the rally’s continuation. His reliance on historical patterns and institutional activity provides a structured view of Bitcoin’s trajectory. However, he also warns that markets are inherently volatile, and external factors—such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic shifts—could influence the outcome.
Looking Forward
Bitcoin’s journey toward another all-time high hinges on several factors, including continued institutional support and market sentiment. If Adler’s predictions play out, October or November may mark the final chapter of this bull run before a longer-term correction sets in.
Until then, traders and investors alike are watching for signals that confirm whether Bitcoin’s latest pullback is a buying opportunity or a warning that the rally’s strength is fading.
