Bitcoin’s price has slipped below its 365-day moving average (MA) for the first time since 2022 — a development analysts say could mark the start of a new bear market phase if not quickly reversed. The move has reignited concerns among traders as the world’s largest cryptocurrency struggles to maintain crucial technical support above the $102,000 level.

Bitcoin’s Biggest Warning Signal Since 2022

Bitcoin fell nearly 5% on Tuesday, breaking beneath the long-term MA level that has historically separated bull cycles from bearish downturns. The indicator, closely tracked by on-chain analysts, was last breached in December 2022, marking the start of the infamous crypto winter that wiped out over half of Bitcoin’s value.

“Bitcoin’s price is now below its 365-day Moving Average,” said Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, on X (formerly Twitter). “This was the final confirmation of the start of the 2022 bear market.”

Moreno’s analysis shows the 365-day MA currently sits around $102,063, a level Bitcoin must reclaim swiftly to avoid deeper declines. Falling below this threshold in 2022 triggered a prolonged market downtrend that lasted through much of 2023.

Why the 365-Day MA Matters

The 365-day Moving Average acts as a long-term trend gauge for Bitcoin, smoothing out volatility and revealing underlying market direction. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price remains above this line, it indicates sustained bullish momentum. Conversely, a break below it often precedes a broad correction.

Technical data confirms this pattern. When Bitcoin fell below the 365-day MA in late 2022, attempts to reclaim it in March 2023 failed, leading to a year-long decline. The eventual breakout above the same line in March 2024 signaled the end of the bear market and fueled a strong rally that carried into early 2025.

Now, with prices once again under the 365-day MA, analysts fear a repeat scenario. “If Bitcoin doesn’t move back above it soon, the probability of an extended correction increases sharply,” Moreno warned.

Historical Context: Support Turned Resistance

During the last bull market, the 365-day MA acted as a critical support zone on multiple occasions. In August 2024, a sudden 10% Bitcoin drop triggered by the Yen carry-trade selloff found solid support exactly at this moving average, before prices rebounded sharply.

A similar bounce occurred in April 2025, when market volatility spiked following U.S. trade tariff announcements under President Trump. Each time, the MA served as a lifeline for Bitcoin bulls, reaffirming its technical importance.

However, breaking decisively below it — as seen this week — flips that same level into resistance, making it harder for Bitcoin to recover in the short term.

On-Chain Metrics Confirm Rising Risk

Data from Glassnode also supports this bearish outlook. Its “Top Buyers Cost Basis Distribution” metric shows that the average entry price for the top 25% of high-cost Bitcoin buyers currently sits near $100,000.

This means that if prices remain below $102,000 for long, many institutional and high-net-worth investors could start realizing losses — a scenario that historically accelerates selling pressure.

Notably, Bitcoin hasn’t fallen below the $100,000 level in nearly two years, making this technical breach even more significant.

Investor Sentiment Turns Cautious

Market sentiment has shifted quickly since the breakdown. Analysts note that derivatives data shows an uptick in short positions across major exchanges, signaling increased hedging against further downside.

Still, some traders see a silver lining. “Short-term corrections near major moving averages are healthy if they resolve quickly,” one analyst said. “But if Bitcoin stays below $102,000 for more than a week, it could invite capitulation.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s recent weakness contrasts with steady institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had been providing strong market support in previous months. If price weakness persists, even ETF inflows may not be enough to prevent a deeper retracement.

The Path Forward

For now, the 365-day MA around $102,063 remains the level to watch. A successful reclaim could restore bullish momentum, while continued weakness below that threshold risks confirming the market’s shift toward a prolonged bearish phase.

“Bitcoin needs to cross back above it quickly,” Moreno reiterated. “Failing to do so would confirm a major bear signal, similar to 2022.”

Until then, traders and institutions alike remain on alert — watching whether Bitcoin can reverse course, or whether history is about to repeat itself.