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Bitcoin is close to $60,000 right now. It dropped roughly 5% in a single day, and it’s sitting about 50% below its all-time high. Three separate charts circulating among analysts say the real pain probably isn’t over yet.
The core argument is simple: Bitcoin still runs on a four-year cycle, and the bottom of that cycle hasn’t arrived. Analyst Jesse Olson put out a chart that lines up all four Bitcoin cycles going back to 2012, each anchored to its respective halving date. The pattern is pretty consistent. Every cycle has bottomed around day 900 post-halving. Right now the market is at day 775 of the current cycle, which kicked off with the 2024 halving. Do the math and you get roughly 125 days left — about four months — before the cycle hits its floor. Olson’s chart marks that floor with an orange band sitting in the $40,000 range. Not a precise number, but a zone. And it’s a long way down from where Bitcoin is trading today.
A Spiral, a Countdown, and Three Resistance Walls
The second chart takes a different visual approach. It plots Bitcoin’s price history on a spiral, with each four-year cycle forming its own arc. Price tops, halvings, and cycle lows all land at recognizable points along those arcs. The markers for 2026 and 2027 fall inside an arc that has historically contained every previous cycle low. The chart basically pushes back on the “this time is different” crowd — the shape of the spiral doesn’t care about institutional narratives. It just keeps turning.
Then there’s the third chart, and it’s probably the most immediately useful for anyone watching price levels day to day. It maps out the resistance Bitcoin has to punch through before any bullish case makes sense. The 21-week simple moving average sits at $75,100. The short-term holder cost basis — basically the average price recent buyers paid — is at $77,000. And the 200-day moving average is at $78,900. During the bull market, those same levels were support. Now they’re ceilings. Bitcoin can’t seem to get near them without stalling, which means a lot of recent buyers are underwater. They’re not selling into strength. They’re waiting to break even.
As Bitcoin approaches a 50% drawdown near $63,000, that’s a rough spot to be in.
Benjamin Cowen’s Timing and the October 2026 Question
Analyst Benjamin Cowen has separately tracked Bitcoin peaks occurring near specific days within its cycle. His observations line up with prior cycle peaks and point toward an October 2026 low — which fits neatly inside Olson’s day 900 window. Two independent methodologies, two analysts, same rough landing zone. That kind of convergence tends to get attention.
But it’s worth being honest about the uncertainty here. Several things could break the pattern. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are pulling in institutional money at a scale that didn’t exist in earlier cycles. Corporate treasury demand — companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets — is another variable that wasn’t a factor in 2016 or even 2020. Sovereign reserve interest has also entered the conversation, though it’s unclear how much actual buying pressure that translates to. Any of those forces could flatten the cycle, push the bottom higher, or stretch the timeline out further than 125 days.
The bullish case basically needs one thing: a weekly close above $78,900. That’s the 200-day average, and it’s the level analysts keep coming back to. Until Bitcoin gets there and holds it, the downtrend has the benefit of the doubt. Not because the charts demand it, but because the burden of proof sits with the bulls. They need to show the cycle is different this time, and so far the price hasn’t done that.
There’s also a more basic point that gets lost in the cycle theory debate. Bitcoin at $40,000 would still be a historically significant price. It’s not a catastrophic number in isolation. But for anyone who bought near $100,000 during the late 2024 run, a drop to $40,000 is a 60% loss. That’s the kind of drawdown that shakes out a lot of holders.
The layered resistance levels — $75,100, $77,000, $78,900 — aren’t going anywhere soon. Each one represents a cluster of sellers waiting to exit. Until Bitcoin clears all three, the market stays cautious, the cycle clock keeps ticking, and Olson’s orange band at $40,000 stays in the conversation.
Day 775. Roughly 125 to go.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Jesse Olson’s chart say about Bitcoin’s cycle bottom?
Olson’s chart aligns all four Bitcoin cycles since 2012 to their respective halvings and finds that each cycle bottomed around day 900 post-halving. With the market currently at day 775, that puts the projected bottom roughly 125 days away, in the $40,000 range.
What resistance levels does Bitcoin need to break for a bullish reversal?
Bitcoin faces resistance at the 21-week simple moving average of $75,100, the short-term holder cost basis of $77,000, and the 200-day moving average of $78,900. Analysts say a weekly close above $78,900 would be the minimum needed to shift market sentiment.
