Community Trust ScoreVerified
Bitcoin is right up against a wall. The 20-month simple moving average sits at $87,165, and whether BTC can claw back above it basically decides what comes next for this cycle.
Why It Matters
The current battle for Bitcoin to surpass the $87,165 level is pivotal, as it may dictate the market's trajectory and investor sentiment in the coming months. The Bollinger Bands' upper limit of $121,640 suggests that a decisive move above the moving average could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially attracting more institutional interest. Conversely, failure to break through this resistance may reinforce bearish sentiment, keeping Bitcoin within a constrained trading range and impacting broader market dynamics.
The level isn’t arbitrary. CryptoQuant calls it the “inflection frontier” — the midpoint of the monthly Bollinger Bands, a widely-used technical tool that wraps an upper and lower boundary around the 20-month SMA using standard deviation. Right now those bands sit at $121,640 on top and $52,694 on the bottom. The zone between the lower band and the SMA itself is what CryptoQuant labels the “accumulation base,” where buyers tend to build positions before any real move higher. Historically, every time Bitcoin has punched through the inflection frontier and held above it, the market went on to set new macro highs. That’s the pattern traders are watching for again.
Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high came in at $124,709 in October 2025. Some retail investors apparently see the $82,442 area as a local top — CryptoQuant doesn’t agree.
The Resistance Wall at $87K
Getting through $87,165 isn’t going to be easy. Exchange order books are stacked with ask liquidity right around that level. Big walls of sell orders act as a ceiling, and breaking through them needs serious buying pressure. The SMA also lines up almost exactly with Bitcoin’s 2026 opening price of $87,490, which makes the whole zone feel heavier. Two independent reference points converging at the same price tends to attract more sellers, not fewer.
And it’s not just technical traders watching. The onchain crowd is paying close attention too. XWIN Research Japan flagged three separate onchain metrics that it says point toward bullish momentum returning by the end of October. No specific details were given on which three metrics, but the read is that conditions are warming up, not cooling off.
CryptoQuant’s own market cycle signals tool tracks when “smart money” tends to take profits, particularly as Bitcoin approaches the upper Bollinger Band. That upper band at $121,640 sits just below the previous all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025 — which is interesting. It means the upper band and the prior record are pretty much in the same neighborhood, and the platform seems to think the next leg could push Bitcoin past both.
Bull-Bear Indicator Flipped in August
Back in August, CryptoQuant’s CEO said the bear market was over. That wasn’t just a gut call. The platform’s bull-bear market cycle indicator — which pulls together data from multiple onchain profitability metrics — jumped from 0.042 in August to 0.186 in more recent readings. That’s a meaningful shift. The indicator basically aggregates whether the market as a whole is sitting in profit or loss, and a move from 0.042 to 0.186 is the kind of reading that tends to show up when sentiment is genuinely turning, not just bouncing.
So the platform’s position is clear: the bearish phase ended, and what’s happening now is a transition into something more optimistic.
But cautious optimism is still cautious. Retail investors haven’t fully bought in yet — that $82,442 level being perceived as a top by some is a sign that confidence isn’t universal. CryptoQuant’s contributors seem to think that’s actually normal for this stage of the cycle. Smart money acts before retail catches on. The onchain data, they say, is showing accumulation, not distribution.
The broader picture is that Bitcoin is caught between two realities right now. On one side, the technicals and onchain signals lean bullish — the inflection frontier, the Bollinger Band setup, the bull-bear indicator flip, the XWIN Research Japan metrics. On the other side, there’s real selling pressure sitting right at the level that needs to break. Large ask walls don’t move unless buyers show up with enough force to absorb them.
It’s worth noting that the upper Bollinger Band at $121,640 would represent a new all-time high if Bitcoin reaches it. The previous record, $124,709, came in October 2025. A move to $121,640 wouldn’t quite get there, but it’d be close — and CryptoQuant’s cycle signals suggest the market isn’t done yet.
Whether Bitcoin can clear $87,165 in the near term probably depends on whether that buying pressure materializes. The ask liquidity walls aren’t going anywhere on their own. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator currently reads 0.186.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin’s 20-month SMA level right now?
Bitcoin’s 20-month simple moving average is at $87,165, which CryptoQuant calls the “inflection frontier” — a level that has historically preceded major price rallies when broken to the upside.
What are the current Bitcoin Bollinger Band levels?
The monthly Bollinger Bands are set at $121,640 on the upper end and $52,694 on the lower end, with the 20-month SMA at $87,165 acting as the midpoint and key resistance zone.
