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Bitcoin (BTC) has recently faced downward pressure, slipping over 1% in the past 24 hours and trading near $108,200. Sellers prevented the cryptocurrency from breaking above key resistance levels earlier in the day, temporarily stalling what could have been a bullish breakout. Despite the short-term selling pressure, on-chain metrics and technical chart patterns suggest a potential rebound may be forming beneath the surface.
Market analysts are noting that while BTC faces temporary hurdles, broader signals point to a healthy consolidation rather than a full-scale pullback. With long-term holders remaining steady and short-term selling easing, Bitcoin could be preparing for its next upward move.
Selling Pressure Eases as Key Metrics Signal Recovery
The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has rebounded from 1.90 to 1.96. This “higher low” setup mirrors a pattern from late September, when a similar rebound preceded a 14% BTC rally within a week, moving prices from approximately $109,700 to $124,700.
Such patterns indicate that long-term holders are not capitulating during the dip. Instead, they are holding onto their positions, creating a stabilizing effect on the market. This metric is widely used to assess reaccumulation phases, where selling slows, and investors prepare for potential upside moves.
The Spent Coins Age Band metric further supports this outlook. Coins held for 365 days to 2 years fell from 25,263 to just 103 units, a 99.6% drop over the past week. Similarly, short-term coins held for 7–30 days decreased from 13,273 to 145 units, marking a 98.9% decline. These sharp reductions show that both long-term and short-term holders are easing their selling activity, signaling exhaustion among sellers and reducing downward momentum.
Long-Term and Short-Term Holders Steadying the Market
The slowdown in both long- and short-term sales highlights a critical development: Bitcoin’s major holders are stabilizing the market. With fewer coins being moved, selling exhaustion may be setting the stage for a rebound. Analysts suggest that this behavior indicates confidence among institutional and retail investors alike, reducing volatility and improving the likelihood of a near-term recovery.
The market behavior is further confirmed by technical indicators. BTC continues to trade within a falling wedge on the 12-hour chart—a formation historically known for bullish breakouts. Despite sellers pushing prices back near $108,000 after a test of the wedge’s upper boundary around $114,000, a doji candle formed, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. This pattern often precedes trend reversals, suggesting the market may be poised for a recovery soon.
Technical Indicators Support Potential Upside
Additional confirmation comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and magnitude of price movements. Between late September and late October, BTC’s price made lower lows while the RSI formed higher lows, creating a bullish divergence. This divergence typically indicates weakening selling pressure and potential upward momentum.
Analysts note that if Bitcoin can break above $111,500—the upper boundary of the falling wedge—it could trigger a short-term rally to $114,000. A sustained close above this level may open the door for further gains toward $116,000, with additional upside toward $124,200 if buying momentum strengthens.
Market Outlook and Key Takeaways
While short-term sellers have successfully capped Bitcoin’s recent rally, key metrics indicate that the pause could be temporary. The combination of a rising MVRV Z-Score, reduced coin spending by both long-term and short-term holders, and bullish technical patterns suggest that selling pressure is fading.
Investors should monitor the $111,500 resistance level closely. Breaking above this threshold could confirm a short-term breakout and mark the start of a renewed bullish phase. As BTC consolidates near $108,200, market participants may find opportunities to accumulate in anticipation of a broader recovery.
Overall, Bitcoin’s recent trading behavior reflects a market in transition, with selling exhaustion giving way to potential upward momentum. While caution is warranted, the current signals provide a strong foundation for a continued rally in the weeks ahead.
