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Bitcoin (BTC) has once again fallen back to a crucial on-chain level known as the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, a price area that has repeatedly served as support over recent weeks. The move comes after another round of selling pressure that pushed BTC lower, raising questions about whether this support zone will hold or flip into resistance.
According to on-chain analyst Maartunn, a contributor to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s price action appears to be at the fourth phase of the STH Realized Price cycle — a point in previous market cycles where investor behavior often determines the direction of the next major move.
Understanding the STH Realized Price
The Realized Price metric measures the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders by dividing the total value of all coins at the price they last moved by the total BTC supply. When the market price trades above this value, most investors are in profit. Conversely, trading below it means the market as a whole holds unrealized losses.
In this context, Maartunn’s analysis focuses specifically on Short-Term Holders (STHs) — investors who acquired their BTC within the past 155 days. These holders are often more sensitive to price fluctuations, meaning their behavior can strongly influence short-term market movements.
When Bitcoin’s spot price approaches the STH Realized Price, it typically tests the conviction of these newer investors. If they see the pullback as a buying opportunity, they help form strong support. However, if selling pressure rises, that same level can quickly turn into a zone of weakness.
The Fourth Retest Could Be Critical
Maartunn shared data showing that Bitcoin has already retested this STH Realized Price several times over the past two months — and each time, the level has held as a base for rebounds. However, history suggests that the fourth retest may represent a key turning point.
In bullish market phases, the STH cycle tends to follow five identifiable stages:
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Initial retest – short-term holders buy the dip confidently.
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Second retest – renewed buying as confidence remains high.
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Third retest – some signs of fatigue, but support continues.
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Fourth retest – accumulation slows as STHs grow cautious.
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Breakdown phase – support fails, and the cost basis turns into resistance.
If the current move represents the fourth stage, Bitcoin could be nearing a potential inflection point. A decisive bounce here would confirm continued bullish conviction, while a sustained breakdown below the STH Realized Price might suggest that short-term holders are beginning to capitulate.
Investor Psychology at Play
The reason this metric matters lies in investor psychology. When the market drops to their cost basis, STHs tend to perceive it as a chance to buy back in at “fair value.” But after multiple retests, their willingness to accumulate weakens, especially if broader sentiment turns cautious or macro conditions deteriorate.
This behavioral shift can lead to what analysts describe as a support-resistance flip — where levels that once acted as buy zones become sell zones. If Bitcoin falls below the STH Realized Price for an extended period, these same investors may use any short-term rallies back to that level to exit their positions, reinforcing downward pressure.
Market Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Recent data from The Block’s crypto price index shows Bitcoin trading around $112,400, up slightly by 0.6% over the past 24 hours. While minor rebounds have occurred, the overall sentiment remains cautious following last week’s market volatility.
On-chain metrics suggest that the current STH Realized Price lies near $112,000–$113,000, marking the zone traders are closely monitoring. A daily close below this area could confirm a short-term breakdown and potentially open the door to deeper corrections.
However, if Bitcoin manages to defend this level once again, it could spark renewed accumulation from both retail traders and institutional participants, setting the stage for a recovery toward the $115,000–$118,000 range.
Broader Market Context
Bitcoin’s latest pullback follows a turbulent period for the broader crypto market, which recently experienced one of its largest liquidation events of the year. The selloff was partly fueled by global macro tensions, including trade uncertainty between the U.S. and China and shifting expectations around monetary policy.
Despite the volatility, long-term on-chain data continues to show healthy network fundamentals and strong accumulation among long-term holders (LTHs), suggesting that structural support for Bitcoin’s uptrend remains intact — provided short-term panic selling doesn’t trigger further technical breakdowns.
Final Thoughts
As Bitcoin retests the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for the fourth time, traders are watching closely to see if this critical support zone will once again hold. If it breaks, it could signal a shift in market structure, leading to increased selling pressure as traders reassess their risk positions.
For now, the STH Realized Price remains a crucial line in the sand — one that could determine whether Bitcoin consolidates before another move higher, or enters a deeper corrective phase.
