Bitcoin’s price has hovered between $100,000 and $110,000 for the past few months, giving the impression of a market stuck in place. However, under the surface, a significant shift is underway. Long-term Bitcoin holders—those who keep their coins for more than six months—are steadily selling, but the market is absorbing these sales without any price crashes. This unexpected strength suggests that Bitcoin could be quietly gearing up for a breakout.

At the same time, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has quietly amassed an impressive 3% of all circulating Bitcoin. This massive holding by a single institution may be a crucial factor in Bitcoin’s current resilience and might signal strong institutional confidence driving future gains.

Long-Term Holders Selling But Market Remains Stable

Typically, when long-term holders begin selling large amounts of Bitcoin, it causes concern among traders and can lead to price drops. But recent trends indicate otherwise. Despite ongoing sales by these holders, Bitcoin’s price has stayed firm, indicating the market is absorbing this supply efficiently.

This pattern points to what experts call a mid-cycle redistribution, where older holders rotate their coins to newer buyers without panic or forced selling. Such movements are often seen before significant bull runs, as they help reset the market with fresh demand and stronger hands.

Crypto data platform CryptoQuant highlights that this steady absorption reflects a healthy market structure. Instead of capitulation, it’s a controlled and orderly transfer of coins.

Strategy’s Growing Bitcoin Holdings Now Equal 3% of Supply

Strategy’s latest purchase of nearly 5,000 bitcoins raised its total holdings to over 597,000 BTC. This now makes up roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—an unprecedented stake for a publicly traded company.

This accumulation strategy is closely tied to market cycles, with Strategy buying more aggressively when sentiment turns positive. While some worry about centralization risks from one company holding such a large share, many investors see this as a strong vote of confidence from institutional players.

The firm’s growing Bitcoin stash effectively reduces the number of coins available to regular traders, tightening supply and potentially supporting higher prices.

July’s Bullish History Could Signal a Breakout

Historically, July has been one of Bitcoin’s best months. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has ended July higher in 8 out of 10 years, with an average return of nearly 9%.

This timing aligns well with current market dynamics: long-term holders gradually selling, institutional demand pushing up, and Bitcoin’s supply becoming tighter.

If this pattern continues, the market could be poised for a decisive price breakout in July, possibly surprising even optimistic traders.

What This Means for Bitcoin Investors

For investors, the combination of calm LTH selling and rising institutional holdings creates a favorable backdrop. As supply tightens and demand grows, Bitcoin’s price could break out from the current range.

Strategy’s massive accumulation signals that big players expect Bitcoin to rise further. Institutional backing often attracts additional investors, amplifying upward momentum.

Still, as with all markets, caution is advised. Price volatility can return quickly, and investors should watch key indicators such as trading volume and price support levels to time their moves.

Looking Ahead: Signs to Watch

The next few weeks will be critical. If Bitcoin continues to absorb selling pressure without dropping, and if institutional buying persists, it could confirm a strong bullish setup.

Traders should pay attention to volume spikes, price action near key levels, and any statements or purchases by major institutions like Strategy.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s ability to absorb long-term holder sales calmly, combined with Strategy’s ownership of 3% of all Bitcoin, signals a potentially powerful shift. July’s historical strength and tightening supply suggest that Bitcoin may be quietly preparing for its next major rally.

For now, investors should stay alert for signs of this breakout while appreciating the market’s unusual stability in the face of sustained selling.