Next Bitcoin Bull Run Faces Resistance as OG Whales Offload BTC

The much-anticipated next Bitcoin bull run is encountering a major hurdle as long-term holders, often referred to as OG whales, continue selling their positions. On-chain data indicates that over 240,000 BTC has been offloaded in the past 30 days, creating a substantial supply wave and limiting upward price momentum. Analysts say this ongoing sell-off is not driven by market manipulation or external shocks but by a natural transition of supply from early adopters to new investors, primarily from traditional finance.

Sell-Side Pressure from Long-Term Holders

On-chain researcher James Check points to persistent sell-side activity from long-term Bitcoin holders as the key factor slowing the market’s recovery. “The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is still not widely appreciated. This is the main source of resistance right now,” Check explained. According to him, these sales are structural rather than speculative, representing a steady redistribution of coins rather than sudden profit-taking.

Check’s data shows the average age of spent coins has increased to roughly 100 days in October, up from 26 days at the start of 2023. This indicates that older coins, dormant for months or years, are being reactivated and sold. The revived supply—the total value of coins re-entering circulation after long inactivity—has reached nearly $2.9 billion per day, marking the second-highest level in history. Nearly half of this revived supply came from coins last active six months to a year ago, suggesting that holders who accumulated during the 2024–2025 cycle are now exiting the market.

Structural Handover to Traditional Finance

William Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, supports the view that the market’s current weakness is structural rather than temporary. He notes that much of the selling by OG whales has been absorbed by traditional finance buyers, including family offices and institutional investors. “This is a natural handover from old holders to new investors. While it creates short-term resistance, it will likely become irrelevant in the coming years as these coins are absorbed into the market,” Clemente said.

The redistribution of supply is gradually shifting market dynamics. Even though the ongoing sales are weighing on Bitcoin’s short-term price momentum, they may also contribute to healthier liquidity in the long run. By transferring large amounts of BTC to buyers outside the early-adopter circle, the market could reduce concentration risk and create a more sustainable foundation for future growth.

Bitcoin Price Rebounds, But Momentum Remains Range-Bound

Despite heavy selling from OG whales, Bitcoin has managed to hold key support levels above $110,000. After a brief dip to $103,602 last week amid macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff tensions, the price rebounded to $111,292, marking a 3.7% daily gain. However, sustaining momentum remains challenging as the revived supply continues to exert downward pressure.

CryptoQuant data shows that Binance’s estimated leverage ratio—the amount of borrowed capital used by traders—declined throughout October, reflecting a pullback in speculative positions. Leverage has begun to recover slightly in the latter half of the month, suggesting that some traders are cautiously reopening positions amid improving sentiment. This cautious optimism is reflected in the stabilization of Bitcoin’s price around $104,000, which has prevented further sharp declines but has yet to trigger a clear breakout.

Implications for the Next Bitcoin Bull Run

The ongoing sell-off by OG whales means that the next Bitcoin bull run may face delayed timing and muted gains until these structural sales are absorbed. Analysts stress that while the market may appear range-bound, the redistribution of BTC supply could set the stage for a more sustainable rally in the medium to long term.

“Bitcoin feels stuck for now, but this is a healthy process,” said one crypto strategist. “The OG holders are gradually transferring coins to new investors. Once this handover stabilizes, the market could have a clearer path to the next bull run.”

Historically, similar phases of structural supply redistribution have preceded strong rallies. After periods of heavy selling from early adopters, Bitcoin has often rebounded as new buyers step in, creating renewed upward pressure. Market participants will be watching closely to see whether support levels near $110,000 hold and if speculative positioning can resume without triggering excessive volatility.

Looking Ahead

As 2025 progresses, the key factors influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory include macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and the pace of supply absorption by new investors. With long-term holders still offloading, the market is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. However, once the supply from OG whales stabilizes, Bitcoin could have a strong foundation for a renewed bull run, potentially surpassing previous highs.

Investors should monitor on-chain metrics such as revived supply, average age of spent coins, and leverage ratios, as these provide critical insights into market health and the likelihood of a sustained rally. While short-term resistance persists, the structural handover from OG whales may ultimately set the stage for a robust and prolonged Bitcoin bull run.