SpaceX Shares Shed $1.1 Trillion From Peak as Burry Eyes Short

SpaceX stock is now trading below $140. That’s a brutal fall from where it was just weeks ago, and the numbers are hard to ignore.

The company went public on June 11, priced at $135 a share. SpaceX sold 555,555,555 shares, pulling in roughly $75 billion in one of the most anticipated IPOs in years. The stock opened the next morning at $150 and closed its first day at $160.95 — a 19% jump over the offering price right out of the gate. Five days later, on June 16, shares hit an intraday high of $225.64. At that moment, SpaceX was briefly worth $2.95 trillion. It was a staggering number. Bigger than Amazon. Bigger than Microsoft. Retail money poured in, institutional desks scrambled for allocations, and the hype machine ran hot.

It didn’t last.

From $2.95 Trillion to $1.8 Trillion in Weeks

SpaceX’s market cap now sits around $1.8 trillion, down roughly 38% from that June 16 peak. Shares are still technically up 3% from the IPO price — so early buyers aren’t underwater yet — but they’re down 7% from the $150 opening on debut day. The $1.1 trillion erosion in market value happened fast. Probably faster than most investors expected.

The worst single session came on June 22. Shares dropped 16% that day, closing at $154.60. Ugly. Then, on July 7, SpaceX got added to the Nasdaq 100 index. That kind of inclusion usually triggers passive fund buying and pushes a stock higher. Not here. SpaceX fell another 6% following the event, as investors who’d positioned ahead of the addition apparently sold into it. The whole sequence was pretty much a case study in how quickly sentiment can flip on a high-profile name.

At its peak, the excitement had real fuel behind it. SpaceX was pitching Mars colonization. It was talking about space-based data centers. And right around the time the stock hit its high, the company announced a $60 billion acquisition of AI startup Cursor. Big numbers, big vision, big reaction from the market. But big visions don’t always hold up when analysts start running the actual financials.

Burry Looked at a Short — Then Backed Off

Michael Burry, who made his name betting against the housing market before 2008, looked hard at SpaceX as a short candidate. He questioned the valuation directly, pointing to the company’s 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion set against a $4.9 billion net loss. The math didn’t add up for him. But he found the short too costly to execute and stepped back. Not a ringing endorsement of the stock, but not a trade he was willing to put on either.

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Morningstar was more direct. The firm put a fair value of $63 per share on SpaceX at the time of the IPO — less than half the offering price, and well below where shares were actually trading. That kind of gap between analyst fair value and market price isn’t unusual for high-profile IPOs, but $63 versus $225 is a wide chasm. It basically said the market was pricing in a version of SpaceX’s future that Morningstar didn’t think was realistic.

And yet, not everyone on Wall Street agrees. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $250. Jefferies bumped its target up by $25. Other banks have set targets as high as $300. So there’s a real split out there — some firms see the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, others think the stock is still overvalued even after losing $1.1 trillion in market cap.

Crypto Wallets, Passive Buyers, and What’s Left

One detail that kind of got buried in the noise: 28,000 crypto wallets pledged $560 million to buy SpaceX shares ahead of the IPO. They didn’t get them. The enthusiasm was real, but the allocation didn’t come through for that group. It’s a strange footnote — crypto investors lining up for a space company stock — but it speaks to how broadly the SpaceX IPO captured attention across different investor communities.

SpaceX currently ranks eighth among public companies by market cap. It’s still an enormous company. But it’s no longer in the conversation with the very top tier, at least not at current prices.

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The financials remain the sticking point. A $4.9 billion net loss on $18.7 billion in revenue is a hard thing to wave away, regardless of how compelling the long-term story sounds. Investors who bought the IPO are still in the green, barely. Investors who chased the stock toward $225 are sitting on significant losses.

Oppenheimer’s $250 target is sitting out there. Shares are around $138.