Cardano (ADA) has experienced a remarkable recovery, surging by 200% in three weeks to reclaim the $1 mark—its highest level since 2022. As the altcoin continues to gain momentum, traders are closely monitoring its potential to rally another 45% and reach $1.5 this week, drawing parallels to its bullish performance in early 2021.

2021 Pattern Revisited: A Blueprint for ADA’s Growth?

Historical analysis suggests that ADA’s current price action mirrors its performance from early 2021, when the token climbed from $0.30 to $1 within three weeks. Following this initial surge, Cardano ADA extended its rally by 45%, hitting $1.5 before entering a consolidation phase lasting three months.

If the pattern holds, ADA could achieve a similar trajectory, rising to $1.5 by the end of November. As of now, ADA’s weekly candlestick has closed above the critical $1 threshold, signaling robust bullish momentum.

Technical Indicators: Supporting the Bullish Outlook

Several technical metrics align with the optimistic prediction for ADA:

1. Stochastic RSI:
   • ADA’s Stochastic RSI indicates strong price momentum, reinforcing the possibility of further gains in the short term.
2. On Balance Volume (OBV):
   • OBV data supports the bullish thesis, reflecting increased buying pressure. However, it must surpass the March peak to confirm sufficient headroom for growth.
3. Resistance and Support Levels:
   • Key resistance lies at $1.5, while a break below $1 could invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially pushing ADA down to its support zone at $0.7-$0.8.

Whale Activity: Mixed Signals Ahead

Despite the promising technical setup, on-chain data reveals mixed signals from whale cohorts:

• Holders of 10M-100M ADA:
  • This group, which controls over 34% of the supply, recently reduced exposure but has resumed accumulation, suggesting renewed confidence in ADA’s prospects.
• Holders of 1M-10M ADA:
  • After aggressive buying last week, this cohort has begun distributing, signaling caution among mid-sized investors.

The divergence in whale behavior creates some uncertainty about ADA’s short-term direction, although the return of accumulation among larger holders provides a bullish undertone.

Factors Supporting a 45% Rally

For ADA to achieve its target of $1.5, several conditions must align:

1. Sustained Momentum: The token needs to maintain its current upward trajectory without significant sell-offs.
2. Market Sentiment: Broader bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market could provide the necessary tailwinds for ADA to push higher.
3. Whale Accumulation: Continued buying by large holders would validate the bullish thesis and support upward price movement.

Risks to Watch

While ADA’s outlook appears favorable, risks remain:

• Price Reversal: A break below $1 could trigger a retracement to the $0.7-$0.8 support range, invalidating the bullish scenario.
• Mixed Whale Signals: Divergence in whale activity could lead to indecision in the market, stalling ADA’s rally.
• External Market Factors: Broader market corrections or negative news could dampen investor sentiment and halt ADA’s ascent.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price prediction for a 45% rally to $1.5 is grounded in its historical performance and supported by bullish technical indicators. However, mixed whale activity and the need for sustained momentum highlight the importance of caution.

If ADA can maintain its current trajectory, it has the potential to replicate its 2021 rally and secure a significant price milestone. For now, $1 remains the key level to watch, as it could dictate the token’s next move.