Today marks a crucial moment for the cryptocurrency market as over $14.21 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. This event is expected to create significant short-term price fluctuations, and traders are keeping a close watch on how it could affect the market.

Bitcoin’s $12 Billion Expiry

Bitcoin options expiring today total $12.075 billion, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.49. This indicates that more traders are betting on Bitcoin’s price rising rather than falling. The “maximum pain” point, where most traders would experience losses, is at $85,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $85,960, there’s a chance the price could dip slightly to meet this level.

This quarterly expiry is particularly significant, as it makes up over 40% of the total open interest. Bitcoin dominates the expiry, accounting for nearly 80% of the volume, with Ethereum making up the remaining 20%. This massive expiry could stir up market sentiment and trigger notable price movements in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Ethereum’s $2.1 Billion Expiry

For Ethereum, the total value of options expiring today is $2.135 billion. The put-to-call ratio for Ethereum is 0.39, indicating that most traders expect the price to go up rather than down. The maximum pain point for Ethereum is at $2,400. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s volatility curve is flatter, meaning there’s less directional bias, but traders still anticipate movement.

Ethereum’s market structure remains stable despite concerns. The first quarter ended on a weaker note, with volatility pushing prices toward the lower end of their range. However, Ethereum has been less affected by the options expiry compared to Bitcoin, which is why its price could experience more subtle changes in the short term.

A Larger-than-Usual Expiry

The expiry today is especially significant because it marks both the end of the month and the close of the first quarter of the year. Crypto options platform Deribit schedules expiries on Fridays to align with traditional financial markets, making today’s expiry event even more important.

Compared to the $1.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry last week, today’s $14.21 billion expiry is far larger, signaling that a substantial shift in market sentiment could occur. This size difference is expected to cause increased volatility and could influence trader strategies going into the weekend.

What Traders Expect

Analysts from Greeks.live have noted that most traders expect Bitcoin to test lower levels between $84,000 and $85,000. Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range, so a significant price move could break this pattern and create new trends. Traders are also keeping an eye on resistance at $88,400, with strong support at $77,000.

As for Ethereum, it is experiencing high trading volumes but no clear price direction. The expiry event could trigger adjustments in trading strategies based on implied volatility (IV), which has been fluctuating due to the quarterly expiry.

Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear

Currently, the market sentiment is one of extreme fear, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index, which is at 33. While large investors, or “whales,” are purchasing, a significant Bitcoin transfer by the U.S. government and today’s $16.5 billion options expiry could cause short-term price swings. To stay in a bullish phase, Bitcoin would need to break above $90,000. However, the prevailing fear in the market has many traders remaining cautious, awaiting clearer signals before committing to major moves.