Toncoin (TON) has entered a pronounced downtrend after failing to sustain its recent recovery attempt. What initially looked like a breakout toward a more bullish structure quickly unraveled as large-scale sell-offs, primarily from whales, triggered a wave of selling pressure. The result has been a rapid and steep price decline, with Toncoin shedding more than 30% of its value in just five days and over 26% in a broader eight-day slide. The token’s inability to hold above key resistance levels has left both investors and analysts re-evaluating its short-term prospects.

Just two weeks ago, the outlook for Toncoin was considerably more optimistic. The asset managed to climb above a crucial local resistance at $3.95, a move that typically signals growing buyer confidence and potential for continuation to higher levels. Price action at the time was also supported by the formation of higher lows, suggesting that a steady uptrend might be forming. However, this recovery phase proved to be short-lived. As the price climbed, so did whale activity, with on-chain data showing a notable surge in large transaction volumes at the start of April. While increased activity can sometimes indicate accumulation, in this case, it foreshadowed an aggressive distribution phase that would soon take over the market.

The shift in sentiment has been further confirmed by key on-chain indicators. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether tokens are being sold at a profit or loss, has fallen below the neutral value of 1. When this ratio dips below one, it indicates that holders are selling at a loss, and in Toncoin’s case, it shows that even investors who held through earlier price drops are now exiting their positions without profit. This behavior typically reflects a lack of confidence in the asset’s near-term recovery potential.

Additionally, the HODLer Net Position Change metric has turned negative, reinforcing the bearish narrative. This indicator tracks the monthly change in the positions of long-term holders, giving insight into whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase. Throughout February and March, the data suggested accumulation was underway, even as prices dipped. Over the past ten days, however, that trend has sharply reversed. A consistent outflow from long-term wallets points to a distribution cycle, aligning with the recent surge in whale sell-offs and price declines.

From a technical standpoint, Toncoin’s price action is now firmly bearish. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator used to measure capital flow into or out of an asset, has plunged deep into negative territory. Currently at -0.14, the CMF shows that capital is steadily exiting the market, further reinforcing selling pressure. The $3.50 support level, which had held during previous corrections, failed to prevent further downside, leaving Toncoin vulnerable to an extended drop if buyer interest doesn’t return soon.

Overall, Toncoin’s failed breakout and the subsequent wave of selling have clearly shifted momentum in favor of the bears. With whale wallets exiting and long-term holders reducing exposure, the near-term outlook remains cautious. Unless support levels are reclaimed and investor confidence returns, further downside remains a real possibility.