Aptos (APT) is currently at a pivotal moment in its price movement, with a battle unfolding between spot traders, who are positioning for a potential rally, and derivative traders, who are betting on a bearish outcome. Over the past month, APT has shown impressive growth, gaining 24.34%, and over the past week, it’s seen a solid 12.76% increase. At press time, spot traders seem to be gaining the upper hand, but the key question is whether they can maintain momentum amid strong bearish pressure from the derivatives market.

Spot Traders Push for a Bullish Rally

The recent uptick in APT’s price can largely be attributed to the actions of spot traders, who appear to be positioning for a rally. Spot traders are buying and holding APT, removing the token from exchanges and creating a supply squeeze that can exert upward pressure on the price.

Data from Exchange Netflow, a metric that tracks the inflow and outflow of APT across exchanges, shows negative values for two consecutive days—November 16th and 17th. On those days, $2.03 million and $938.67K worth of APT were withdrawn from exchanges, respectively. This trend suggests that traders are accumulating APT for the long term, reducing the circulating supply and possibly driving prices higher.

A decrease in circulating supply on exchanges often results in upward price pressure, as fewer tokens are available for sale. This has allowed spot traders to dominate the price action in the short term. APT’s price increased by 1.08% on the day, signaling that spot traders’ bullish sentiment is having an immediate effect.

Derivative Traders Hold a Bearish Outlook

Despite the positive price action from spot traders, derivative traders are adopting a more cautious approach, and their bearish sentiment could threaten the sustainability of APT’s rally. Key on-chain metrics such as Open Interest, Long-to-Short ratios, and Liquidations suggest that a significant number of derivative traders are betting against APT’s price rise.

Data from Coinglass shows that Open Interest has dropped by 8.03%, falling to $255.58 million, signaling that many of the unsettled contracts are now driven by short traders. This indicates a shift in market sentiment, with more traders betting on a price decline rather than a continued rally.

Additionally, long liquidations have spiked, with $589.38K worth of long positions wiped out. This is a bearish signal, as it shows that the market is moving against those who anticipated further price increases, adding more fuel to the bearish outlook.

The Long-to-Short ratio has also dropped to 0.8822, meaning that there are now more short positions than long ones, further weighing down any potential bullish momentum. With a larger number of short traders in control, the chances of a sustained rally in the short term become increasingly uncertain.

APT’s Technical Outlook: Will It Break $14?

Looking at the price chart, APT is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern typically precedes significant price movements, either upward or downward. The $14.08 resistance level has been a key point of contention for APT, and a breakout above this level could signal the start of a major rally.

However, the price is also testing critical support levels. The $11.52 support zone could come into play if the price experiences a minor pullback. If APT holds above this support, it could rally back toward the $14.08 resistance. However, if it fails to break above this resistance, we could see more selling pressure, potentially resulting in a pullback.

If the bullish momentum holds and APT breaks through the $14.08 resistance level, the price could surge by as much as 37.27%, potentially reaching a new monthly high of $19.37.

What’s Next for APT?

At present, spot traders seem to have the upper hand, particularly with the decrease in circulating supply on exchanges. If the bearish pressure from derivative traders subsides, and the market sentiment shifts positively, APT could continue its bullish run. However, the situation remains fluid, and the direction of APT’s next move will depend on how the spot and derivatives markets continue to evolve.

Investors should keep a close eye on key technical levels—especially the $14.08 resistance and $11.52 support—along with the ongoing battle between spot and derivative traders. If the current trends hold, APT could break through its resistance, potentially leading to further upside. However, any continued dominance from short sellers could put the brakes on the rally, leaving APT in a state of consolidation for the near future.