Avalanche (AVAX) has been struggling to gain traction in the market lately, with a significant bearish outlook looming. Technical indicators and market structure point toward the possibility of a continued downtrend, with the $14.5 support level emerging as the next significant target for bears. As of now, the chances of a bullish reversal seem slim, and traders may need to prepare for further price declines.

Key Resistance Levels Weighing on Avalanche’s Recovery

Over the past several weeks, Avalanche has faced significant resistance, particularly in the $20 range. This price zone has been a formidable barrier for AVAX bulls, as each attempt to break above this level has been met with strong selling pressure. For a potential bullish shift in the market structure, AVAX would need to close above the $24.95 mark on a daily basis, but that appears increasingly unlikely given the current market conditions.

At present, Avalanche’s price action is under the influence of several key resistance areas. The $20 to $21.7 range is particularly important, as it marks a bearish order block. This suggests that any bounce in price is likely to be met with resistance from sellers, preventing a sustained recovery. Furthermore, the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (DMA) are both exhibiting a downward trend, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The 20 DMA, specifically, has been acting as a dynamic resistance level over the past two weeks, currently sitting at $20.29.

Downtrend Remains Intact

Avalanche’s price has been on a steady decline since late February, and the market structure continues to suggest that the downtrend is far from over. After retracing the November rally in February, AVAX has lost an additional 14% in value. The trading volume during this drop has also been notably high, indicating strong selling pressure.

A look at the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool, which helps identify key price levels with high trading volume, reveals a significant high-volume node between $20.5 and $22.1. This further confirms the strength of the resistance in this range. Traders should be cautious, as any bounce in price could be short-lived, with sellers likely to re-enter the market at these levels.

The overall market structure is clearly bearish, with the most recent lower high established at $24.95. Until AVAX can break above this level on a daily closing basis, the market is unlikely to shift bullishly. Given the current price action and resistance zones overhead, it seems more probable that the price will continue to slide rather than make a dramatic recovery.

Bears Eye $14.5 Support

Based on Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, the $14.5 level stands out as a key target for bears. The 23.6% extension level of the Fibonacci retracement tool places this level at $14.46, suggesting that it could act as the next significant area of support. If the price continues its decline, this could be the next target for the bears.

Traders looking to capitalize on the current market conditions might want to consider shorting any short-term price bounce toward the $21 area. The $14.5 level could act as the next major support zone, and traders may look to lock in profits as the price approaches this level. However, if AVAX unexpectedly breaks above the $22.15 mark, this bearish scenario would be invalidated, and a reversal could be in play.

Conclusion: Bearish Sentiment Prevails for Avalanche

At this stage, it’s clear that Avalanche is facing a challenging market environment. Despite some minor price bounces, the general trend remains bearish, with the $20 range acting as a strong resistance zone. The focus is now on the $14.5 support level, which could become the next target for bears if the downward momentum continues. Traders should remain cautious, as the current market conditions suggest that further downside is more likely than a significant rally in the near future.