The cryptocurrency landscape is buzzing with anticipation as Cardano (ADA) edges closer to a potential breakout. The latest news on the approval odds for a Cardano Spot ETF has raised renewed interest among investors. With large-scale investors accumulating ADA in anticipation of the approval, could we be on the verge of witnessing a major price surge for Cardano?

As of February 16, 2025, Cardano (ADA) was trading at $0.7990, marking a 3.6% increase in trading volume over the past 24 hours and a 12% surge over the last week, according to CoinMarketCap. This uptick comes amid growing institutional interest and a series of developments that could pave the way for a significant price rally.

Institutional Interest and the ETF Push

One of the driving forces behind this surge is the recent filing by Grayscale, a prominent asset management firm, for the Cardano Spot ETF. This move has captured the attention of investors, with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) observing an increasing demand for institutional involvement in Cardano. The prospect of a Cardano ETF approval has set the stage for billions in potential liquidity inflows, with experts now assigning a 60% chance of the ETF’s approval.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make its decision by March 27, 2025, which could either lead to approval, denial, or an extension of the review period. As we approach this deadline, many investors are hoping that history will repeat itself and that ADA will see another major upward movement similar to previous bull runs.

Whale Activity and Growing Accumulation

Since the market downturn in December 2024, ADA has seen a gradual accumulation by large-scale investors, despite its price consolidation. The heavy accumulation is viewed as a positive indicator, suggesting that institutional players are positioning themselves for what could be a significant price breakout.

The trend is reminiscent of Cardano’s price action in 2019 and 2020, where the cryptocurrency went through an accumulation phase before the explosive bull run of 2021. This historical pattern is fueling optimism among traders who believe that a similar upward movement could unfold soon.

Technical Analysis: A Potential Bullish Trend

Looking at Cardano’s recent price chart, there are clear signs of bullish momentum. The coin has been making higher highs over the past week, suggesting the formation of a potential uptrend. This upward trajectory mirrors the price movement observed during ADA’s accumulation phase prior to its surge in 2021.

According to TapTools, a cryptocurrency analytics platform, the accumulation period for Cardano since 2022 has closely resembled the lead-up to previous bull runs. Currently, Cardano is trading within the upper range of this accumulation zone, signaling a potential breakout. If this trend continues, ADA could be headed towards the crucial $1 mark, a key psychological resistance level.

On-Chain Insights: Active Wallets and Growing Network Activity

Further bolstering the bullish sentiment is Cardano’s on-chain data, which reveals increasing activity on the network. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ADA has recently risen from 44 to 55, indicating that traders are actively purchasing the asset without pushing it into overbought territory just yet. This suggests that the market is becoming more confident in Cardano’s future prospects.

Additionally, data from Santiment shows a steady rise in the number of active wallet addresses associated with Cardano, pointing to an increase in network activity. As trading volumes climb, it’s clear that interest in ADA is growing, which could translate to further price appreciation in the coming weeks.

The Plomin Hard Fork and Decentralized Governance

Cardano’s ongoing upgrades, such as the recent Plomin hard fork, have also played a role in boosting investor confidence. The hard fork introduced significant changes to the network’s decentralized governance model, giving more power to Cardano’s token holders and enhancing its potential for long-term growth. These upgrades have been well-received by the community and are viewed as a positive catalyst for ADA’s price movement.

What’s Next for Cardano?

The confluence of factors—growing institutional interest, the potential approval of the Cardano Spot ETF, historical price patterns, and network upgrades like the Plomin hard fork—points to a promising future for ADA. Analysts are now predicting that Cardano could break above the $1 mark in the near future, with the next major resistance level at $3. This potential rally is gaining momentum, and the chances of a bullish breakout are becoming increasingly likely.

While it’s important to note that cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile, the current trend for Cardano appears to be bullish. With the odds of ETF approval climbing to 60%, ADA could see a major influx of capital in the coming months, which may set the stage for its next big price surge.

Conclusion: Cardano’s Bullish Prospects

As we approach the March 27 deadline for the SEC’s decision on the Cardano Spot ETF, all eyes are on ADA. The combination of technical analysis, on-chain data, and institutional interest paints a promising picture for Cardano. If the ETF is approved, we could be looking at a major breakout for ADA, potentially pushing it past the $1 mark and towards new all-time highs. However, as always with cryptocurrency, investors should proceed with caution and remain mindful of the market’s inherent risks.

In summary, Cardano is one to watch in the coming weeks, as its chances of a breakout continue to rise. With growing institutional interest, positive technical indicators, and upcoming developments, ADA’s future looks increasingly bright.