Dogecoin has recently made headlines with its first-ever bullish divergence on the RSI daily chart in 2025, signaling a potential upward movement in its price. As of the latest data, Dogecoin is trading at $0.2659, reflecting a 2.23% increase over the past 24 hours. However, while the bullish divergence could indicate a possible rally, significant uncertainties surrounding the market’s volatility could prevent Dogecoin from sustaining a major breakout.

The Technical Indicators Behind Dogecoin’s Potential Rally

Currently, Dogecoin’s price is consolidating within a descending wedge pattern, but it has yet to break through its key resistance levels. Despite this, the presence of a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points toward the possibility of an uptrend. This technical indicator suggests that there may be a shift in market sentiment toward the positive, even though the breakout has not occurred yet.

For a successful rally to take place, Dogecoin would need to maintain support at the $0.25 level and break through the resistance. If it manages to hold steady above this price level, a price surge could follow. However, the key question remains whether enough market support will emerge to trigger a sustained rally.

Rising Total Value Locked (TVL) – Is It a Sign of Growing Interest?

Dogecoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has recently experienced a slight increase, growing from $4.24 million to $4.68 million. This indicates a modest rise in investor interest and participation in the network. Although this TVL increase is positive, it remains small and does not yet indicate a significant shift in market sentiment. Therefore, while this uptick is encouraging, further monitoring of TVL trends over the next few days will be critical to determining whether it will lead to substantial price movement.

MVRV Ratio – A Cautionary Indicator?

At the time of writing, Dogecoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 77.7%. The MVRV ratio suggests that Dogecoin is nearing its fair market value but has not yet become severely overbought. For Dogecoin to see continued upward movement, it will need to generate significant buying interest in the market. If the MVRV ratio continues to rise, it could signal that the asset is becoming overvalued, which could lead to price corrections in the near future.

The MVRV ratio, when viewed in conjunction with other indicators, suggests that while Dogecoin has the potential for growth, investors should remain cautious of the risks associated with overvaluation. It will be important to watch for any signs of overheating in the market, especially if the price continues to climb without sufficient support from new buyers.

Technical Analysis – Limited Buying Momentum and Bearish Pressure

Further analysis of the technical indicators shows that Dogecoin’s market sentiment remains largely neutral. The RSI is currently at 40.96, indicating limited buying momentum and overall market indecision. Additionally, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) reveals a positive Directional Index (+D) at 9.31 and a negative Directional Index (-D) at 33.24. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 24.53, signaling weak trend strength.

The disparity between the positive and negative directional indices suggests that while there may be some signs of potential upward movement, the overall bearish pressure is still dominant. This indicates that a breakout is not guaranteed, and for Dogecoin to overcome this bearish pressure, it will need sustained buying interest and a shift in market sentiment.

Conclusion: Will Dogecoin Break Through Resistance?

In conclusion, while the bullish divergence on Dogecoin’s RSI chart presents a promising indicator for future price movement, a breakout remains uncertain. Dogecoin has not yet broken through its key resistance levels, and while technical indicators point toward potential upward movement, broader market dynamics and investor sentiment will be crucial in determining whether the cryptocurrency can maintain momentum.

The modest increase in TVL and the current MVRV ratio both suggest that while there is some interest in Dogecoin, significant market support is still needed to trigger a breakout. Investors should continue to monitor the price action closely to see whether Dogecoin can maintain its support and attract enough buying interest to initiate a sustained rally.