Ethereum (ETH) has been hovering around the $3,200 mark, drawing increasing attention from investors, especially long-term holders (LTHs). This price point has fueled a subtle yet significant shift in sentiment among these market veterans, often considered the “smart money” of the crypto world. For the first time since November 2024, LTHs are showing signs of anxiety, according to recent analysis of Ethereum’s Network Value to Transaction (NUPL) metric.
The NUPL chart, which tracks the sentiment of long-term holders, has recently moved into the “optimism-anxiety” phase (represented by yellow bars) after months of sustained confidence (green bars). This shift to yellow territory, with readings around 0.48, reflects growing uncertainty among LTHs. While Ethereum’s price action has been relatively calm, the mounting anxiety suggests that holders may be uncertain about ETH’s ability to sustain its recent gains near the $3,200 level.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $3,217, showing signs of consolidation after some recent price volatility. The technical structure of Ethereum indicates strong support levels in the $2,800-$2,900 range, with the 50-day Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic support at around $3,433. Additionally, the 200-day MA at $2,900 reinforces Ethereum’s long-term bullish structure.
However, Ethereum faces significant resistance between $3,205 and $3,345. This range also aligns with the positions of underwater holders, as shown by Global In/Out of the Money data. If Ethereum fails to break through this resistance zone, it could face increased selling pressure, further testing these critical support levels.
Despite the shift in sentiment, accumulation data tells a different story. Over 12 million addresses hold a total of 62.27 million Ethereum, with an average acquisition price of $2,425.31. This shows that a significant portion of the market is holding ETH well below its current price, indicating a strong base of support. Furthermore, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator continues to rise, suggesting ongoing buying activity. This indicates that, despite growing anxiety among LTHs, accumulation trends remain robust.
The ongoing accumulation, paired with the anxiety among LTHs, sets the stage for a period of potential price discovery. The market must reconcile these opposing forces—bullish accumulation and nervous long-term holders. In the near term, Ethereum may experience increased volatility as these dynamics play out.
The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of ETH’s price. If the accumulation trend continues and buying pressure remains strong, Ethereum could break through the resistance levels around $3,200-$3,400. On the other hand, if anxiety among long-term holders grows and triggers selling, Ethereum could face further consolidation or even a correction.
Ethereum is at a critical juncture. Long-term holders are displaying signs of anxiety, reflecting uncertainty about the sustainability of Ethereum’s current price level. While technical indicators remain bullish, and strong accumulation trends suggest underlying support, the resolution of this tension between accumulation and anxiety could determine whether Ethereum moves past its current resistance or faces a more volatile period ahead.
Investors and traders will need to monitor the $3,200-$3,400 resistance zone and the support levels around the 50-day MA closely. The outcome of this battle will likely play a significant role in shaping Ethereum’s price action in the coming months.
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