Ethereum (ETH) has shown impressive momentum heading into 2025, with long-term holders (LTH) becoming more bullish than their Bitcoin (BTC) counterparts. However, despite recent positive sentiment, Ethereum’s price performance has lagged behind Bitcoin, with some market indicators suggesting that a shift could be on the horizon.
One notable observation is the behavior of Ethereum’s long-term holders. Analytics firm IntoTheBlock highlighted that nearly 75% of Ethereum addresses are controlled by long-term holders. This marks a significant shift, with Ethereum outpacing Bitcoin, where only about 60% of Bitcoin addresses are controlled by long-term holders. This trend suggests that ETH holders have more conviction in the asset, potentially in anticipation of a future rally that could push ETH’s price toward new highs.
While Ethereum’s long-term holders show optimism, Ethereum’s price has notably underperformed compared to Bitcoin. Since early 2024, Bitcoin has surpassed its previous cycle high, topping $108,000 and making nearly all of its holders profitable. In contrast, Ethereum has not yet seen similar gains, with many ETH bulls waiting for the coin to break new highs before taking profits.
Institutional demand for Ethereum has also seen fluctuations. According to data from Soso Value, Ethereum ETFs have experienced a notable decline in inflows during the first weeks of 2025, contrasting with strong demand seen in November 2024. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows, suggesting that institutional interest has recently tilted toward Bitcoin over Ethereum. If this trend continues, it could allow Bitcoin to continue outperforming Ethereum on the price charts.
The ETH/BTC ratio, a critical indicator that tracks Ethereum’s relative price performance against Bitcoin, recently dropped to a four-year low of 0.30. This suggests that Ethereum has significantly underperformed compared to Bitcoin over the past period. However, the ratio has now formed a double-bottom pattern, a technical signal that could indicate a potential reversal and a market shift in favor of Ethereum.
If Ethereum can break through its current resistance levels, there’s potential for a significant rebound. This is particularly relevant as Ethereum’s price recently tested the $3,000-$3,300 support zone, and traders are watching for a possible recovery from these levels. Should Ethereum manage to reclaim the $3.6K mark, it would confirm the bullish sentiment shared by some traders on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter).
Ethereum’s performance in the short term is closely tied to broader market trends, especially Bitcoin’s price movements. Should Bitcoin stabilize or continue its upward trajectory, Ethereum could see a potential rebound, but the major hurdle will be crossing key resistance levels. One critical area of interest is the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which could serve as a pivotal level for Ethereum’s recovery. If ETH can reclaim this support, the market may see further price growth, and the $3.6K target could be within reach.
In conclusion, while Ethereum’s price action has been relatively subdued compared to Bitcoin, the strong conviction from long-term holders, alongside a potential bullish reversal in the ETH/BTC ratio, indicates that Ethereum may be primed for a rebound. If Ethereum can break through key resistance levels and reclaim support, it could target $3.6K in the near future, presenting a positive outlook for the crypto asset in Q1 2025.
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