Ethereum has posted an 11% rebound from its recent multi-year low of $1,412, trading at $1,567 at the time of writing. This sharp recovery has reignited optimism in the altcoin market, with many speculating whether a sustainable bottom is finally in. However, on-chain and derivatives data paint a far more complex picture, where signs of both accumulation and capitulation co-exist. Over the past week, Ethereum has seen a notable increase in buying activity, with 380,000 ETH acquired around the $1,461 level and an additional 453,000 ETH absorbed over the last five days. This zone appears to be forming a key base of support. But the quality of this buying matters just as much as the volume.

While spot accumulation at such levels could signal genuine long-term conviction, the current trend reveals a stronger bias toward leverage-driven positioning. The influx of 100,000 ETH into exchanges over the last week suggests growing sell-side pressure, possibly from participants seeking to exit breakeven or lock in profits during the bounce. At the same time, 60,000 ETH has exited from derivatives platforms, indicating that leveraged traders may be building aggressive long positions. These patterns can be precarious, especially if momentum fades and support from the spot market doesn’t materialize.

The emotional landscape of the market remains divided between greed and fear. Although accumulation at lower levels might reflect opportunistic buying, data from Glassnode shows that dormant whale wallets have begun realizing losses. This capital rotation is usually driven by fear-based decision-making, which contradicts the narrative of a confident bottom. Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) still lingers in capitulation territory, reinforcing that sentiment has yet to fully recover. The $1,548 to $1,599 range has now become the key battleground, with roughly 793,000 and 732,000 ETH held in those zones, respectively. Price remains stuck here, and failure to breach these resistance levels may trigger renewed downside pressure.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s Funding Rates remain in positive territory, confirming a long-heavy bias across futures. While this may reflect optimism, the absence of meaningful institutional or spot demand creates fragility. Should prices stall, leveraged positions could be liquidated rapidly, resulting in steep price corrections. History has shown that when derivative-driven rallies lack fundamental support, the downside risk multiplies.

Adding to these concerns, the number of mega whale wallets—those holding more than 10,000 ETH—has dropped to just 875, marking the lowest figure in over eight years. This reduction in large wallet holdings aligns with ETH’s local top near $2,600 in February, indicating that significant profit-taking and distribution may already be underway. This ongoing exit from top holders contrasts sharply with the recent inflows from smaller buyers, creating an imbalance in market structure.

Despite the 11% price recovery and visible accumulation, Ethereum’s current setup bears the hallmarks of a classic bull trap. Without confirmation from spot market flows, institutional participation, or a decisive breakout above key resistance levels, the rally may be short-lived. The risk remains that speculative greed is driving this short-term upside, while deeper market vulnerabilities persist beneath the surface. If these dynamics continue, Ethereum could slide back below $1,400 before any true bottom formation can be confirmed.