Fetch.ai’s native token, FET, has managed a dramatic turnaround—rallying nearly 50% from its recent lows. But despite the strong recovery, analysts caution that one key support level could determine whether this bounce leads to a sustained breakout or fizzles into another correction.

FET, a prominent AI-related cryptocurrency within the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance, wicked down to a low of $0.34 during last week’s market-wide dip. The move was swift and painful, but just as quickly, the token staged an impressive recovery. As of April 13, FET had surged to $0.54, outpacing most large-cap cryptocurrencies and signaling renewed interest in the AI token sector.

A closer look at on-chain and centralized exchange (CEX) data reveals the mechanics behind the rebound. In the past 72 hours alone, over 1 million FET tokens were accumulated across the spot market—indicating stealth buying behavior that many analysts interpret as early-stage positioning by smart money investors. This quiet accumulation phase often precedes a broader rally, as it suggests informed players are betting on a price expansion before the general market catches on.

The key level now under the microscope is $0.34. Market participants, including liquidity providers and institutional traders, appear to be treating this zone as a structural support level. If this price floor holds, it could serve as a springboard for the next major leg up—potentially targeting the $1 mark, a level last seen in late January before a sharp distribution phase sent prices tumbling.

FET’s price trajectory also mirrors the broader resurgence of AI-focused tokens. Over the past week, the combined market capitalization of AI cryptocurrencies has climbed from $21.33 billion to $24.43 billion, reflecting a robust inflow of capital into the sector. FET’s outsized gains within this niche—nearly 47% within days—suggest that traders are betting big on AI-related narratives regaining traction as tech innovation continues to dominate investor interest.

FET’s recent behavior fits a classic technical pattern. After spending several weeks locked in a narrow trading range, the token appears to be breaking out of its accumulation zone. These setups are often followed by periods of heightened volatility and larger directional moves, particularly when reinforced by on-chain data and bullish sentiment. And that’s exactly what analysts are beginning to observe now.

While speculative momentum is returning, long-term value metrics show a more complex picture. FET’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score—a key indicator of whether a token is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical averages—has dipped to a two-year low of -1.50. This puts the token squarely within what analysts consider the “green band,” a region often associated with oversold conditions and potential accumulation zones.

This would ordinarily be interpreted as a strong bullish signal. However, other metrics like the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) suggest the market may not be ready for a full reversal just yet. FET’s NUPL has remained negative since early January, when the token was trading at approximately $1.60. This extended stretch in the red reflects continued investor capitulation and insufficient profit realization to fuel sustained upward momentum.

Additionally, the $1.12 level—previously seen as a likely candidate for support based on prior MVRV interactions—failed to hold during the recent downturn. This breakdown indicates that smart money, while slowly re-entering the market, has not yet committed enough capital to counter the ongoing sell-side pressure. Even now, profit-taking remains active, as evidenced by a still-positive Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks coins sold at a profit.

In essence, while the recent 50% rally is encouraging, it doesn’t guarantee that the worst is over. The critical takeaway is that FET’s current price action reflects an early-stage rebound that hinges on whether the $0.34 support level remains intact. If that level is breached again, it could trigger a deeper pullback, undermining the bullish thesis and delaying any attempt at reclaiming January’s highs.

However, if accumulation continues and the broader AI token market maintains its upward trajectory, FET could be well-positioned for a move toward $1 and beyond—especially as capital rotation into the AI narrative intensifies through Q2.

Whether $0.34 becomes a Springboard for further gains or a trapdoor to another leg down will likely be decided in the coming days. Traders and investors alike will be watching the charts closely, as the outcome could shape sentiment across the entire AI crypto sector.