HBAR (Hedera) has been struggling through a persistent downtrend for the last six weeks, with no clear signs of recovery on the horizon. Despite brief moments of support, the altcoin has failed to regain significant upward momentum due to broader market challenges and bearish technical indicators. As of February 27, 2025, HBAR is experiencing a deeper decline, with technical analysis suggesting that the downtrend could persist in the short term.

Persistent Downtrend Signals Weak Market Sentiment

Since mid-January 2025, HBAR has been on a downward spiral, with its price failing to recover despite occasional efforts to break through resistance levels. The current market conditions are unfavorable for a potential recovery, as both market sentiment and technical indicators point to further downside risks.

A key indicator highlighting the strength of this ongoing downtrend is the ADX (Average Directional Index), which currently sits at 44, well above the 25 threshold that signals strong momentum in the prevailing trend. This high ADX reading indicates that the downtrend is not losing steam, and further declines are more likely than a rebound. As selling momentum intensifies, HBAR could continue to experience prolonged losses in the absence of a clear catalyst for change.

RSI Signals Oversold Conditions but Recovery Is Uncertain

Another concerning signal for HBAR is its position on the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is approaching the oversold territory. When the RSI drops below 30, it typically signals that an asset is oversold, which could indicate a potential for a rebound. However, historical data suggests that an oversold condition does not always lead to a quick recovery. In HBAR’s case, the RSI’s movement near the 30 mark is not a guarantee of a reversal and might just reflect the continuing weakness in market sentiment.

Although a low RSI could normally provide hope for a recovery, past price action for HBAR shows that this condition has not always led to immediate upward movement. Therefore, despite the RSI nearing the oversold zone, it is unclear whether HBAR will see a meaningful bounce or if it will continue its downward trajectory.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

HBAR is currently holding support around $0.20, just above the critical $0.19 level. If it fails to hold this support, the price could quickly slide toward the next significant support zone around $0.17. This would deepen the losses for investors and increase the downward pressure on the altcoin. Given the combination of bearish sentiment and technical indicators, there is a real possibility that HBAR may test these lower levels in the coming days.

On the other hand, a breakthrough above the current downtrend and a solid hold above the $0.22 resistance level could indicate a shift in market sentiment. If HBAR can reclaim $0.22 as support, it could signal the beginning of a recovery phase, possibly invalidating the current bearish outlook. However, this would require significant buying pressure to break the prevailing trend.

Conclusion

The six-week-long downtrend in HBAR has intensified, with the current technical indicators pointing to the continuation of bearish momentum. Despite the RSI nearing oversold conditions, there is no strong evidence yet that a recovery is imminent. HBAR must maintain its $0.19 support to avoid further declines, but if the $0.17 support level is breached, it could lead to a deeper downtrend. A breakout above $0.22 remains the key level to watch for any potential reversal of the bearish trend. For now, HBAR investors face uncertainty, and a strong push from the bulls will be necessary to reverse the current downtrend.