Hedera (HBAR) has faced significant resistance at the $0.200 level, struggling to breach this key barrier despite multiple attempts. The altcoin’s price has recently traded around $0.183, and it has been consolidating just below this resistance for some time. This inability to break past $0.20 has led to a rise in market volatility, signaling that a potential short-term breakout could be in the cards. However, whether this surge will be sustained or merely a brief spike remains uncertain.

Weakened Correlation with Bitcoin

One of the primary factors affecting HBAR’s performance is its decoupling from Bitcoin. Historically, HBAR and Bitcoin have exhibited a strong positive correlation, meaning that HBAR often moves in tandem with Bitcoin’s price action. However, recent data shows that this correlation has decreased to 0.8 and is moving closer to falling into negative territory. This suggests that HBAR may no longer follow Bitcoin’s movements as closely.

The weakening correlation is crucial because it means that HBAR may struggle to benefit from the broader market trend. While Bitcoin has recently stabilized above $85,000, HBAR’s decoupling could hinder its ability to rally alongside Bitcoin’s strength. If Bitcoin continues to perform well, it may create a more isolated market position for HBAR, making it harder for the altcoin to capitalize on any upward momentum from the broader market.

Bollinger Bands Indicate Rising Volatility

Looking at technical indicators, HBAR’s Bollinger Bands have begun to tighten, which is often a precursor to a significant price movement. The tightening of the Bollinger Bands suggests that volatility is increasing and could lead to a breakout. This is important for traders because such squeezes typically precede a surge in price.

Historically, when the price closes below the middle Bollinger Band during a squeeze, a sharp price movement typically follows. If this pattern holds, traders can expect HBAR to experience a burst of price action in the near future. However, these breakouts tend to be short-lived. While HBAR could see a temporary surge past the $0.20 resistance, sustaining this upward momentum will be challenging unless broader market conditions improve.

Resistance and Support Levels: A Critical Juncture

Currently trading at $0.183, HBAR’s price is hovering just below the crucial $0.20 resistance level. Breaking through this resistance could trigger a rally, with the next targets around $0.222 or even $0.250. However, the current market dynamics suggest that any surge past $0.20 will likely be brief. HBAR has experienced similar price spikes in the past, only to face rejections and fall back into consolidation.

The real test for HBAR lies in its ability to maintain momentum once it breaches the $0.20 resistance. If it fails to sustain upward movement, HBAR could retreat back below key support levels. The next major support zone lies at $0.177, followed by $0.165. If HBAR breaks below these levels, the bullish outlook will be invalidated, and the altcoin could continue to trend downward.

Conclusion

HBAR’s price struggles to breach the $0.20 resistance, and while rising volatility points to a potential short-term breakout, the altcoin’s future performance remains uncertain. The decoupling from Bitcoin and the tightening Bollinger Bands suggest that while HBAR might experience a brief surge, it could quickly face challenges in maintaining that upward momentum. Traders should stay cautious, as a failure to hold above key support levels could trigger a decline, further solidifying the bearish trend for HBAR. Until the price breaks through resistance and establishes a sustained rally, HBAR may remain trapped in its current consolidation phase.