Hedera (HBAR) has experienced significant volatility over the past week, dropping nearly 20% before showing a 5% rebound in the last 24 hours. This recent uptick has raised hopes of a potential trend reversal, as key technical indicators suggest that buying pressure is increasing, though the overall market remains uncertain.

Despite the overall bearish sentiment, the recent rebound suggests that buyers could be gaining control. The price movement is currently facing a critical resistance level at $0.219. If HBAR successfully breaks this resistance, it could see a rally toward $0.258, potentially even reaching $0.287, marking a potential 40% upside. However, failure to sustain the upward momentum could result in HBAR retesting lower levels, possibly as low as $0.179 or below.

Indicators Point to a Potential Trend Shift

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a key tool in understanding the strength of a trend. Currently, HBAR’s ADX stands at 27.4, down from 31.4 just a day earlier. While the decline suggests that the strength of the downtrend is weakening, ADX is still above the key 25 threshold, indicating that the bearish trend remains in place, albeit with diminishing momentum.

Along with the ADX, the Directional Indicator (+DI) has risen from 11.7 to 20.9, signaling that buying pressure is increasing. Meanwhile, the -DI has dropped from 30.3 to 20.5, indicating a decline in selling pressure. Although these shifts are promising, HBAR has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. The +DI and -DI are still relatively close, and further movement is needed to solidify the bullish case.

Ichimoku Cloud Shows Potential for Shift, But Resistance Remains

The Ichimoku Cloud, a widely used technical indicator, is also signaling a potential trend shift. HBAR’s recent price action has moved above the Tenkan-Sen (conversion line), suggesting that momentum is changing. However, the price is still below the Kijun-Sen (baseline) and remains inside the cloud’s resistance zone. The red cloud ahead continues to signal bearish pressure, and until HBAR breaks above this resistance, the trend remains uncertain.

A break above the cloud could provide a stronger confirmation of a trend shift. However, if the price faces rejection at this resistance level, it could lead to a continuation of the downtrend. The battle between buyers and sellers at this level will be critical in determining whether HBAR can sustain its recent rebound or if the bearish momentum will resume.

Key Levels to Watch

Looking ahead, HBAR’s short-term moving averages (EMAs) are still positioned below the longer-term averages, suggesting that the overall trend remains bearish. However, the short-term EMAs are beginning to turn upward, indicating the possibility of a trend reversal.

If HBAR manages to break the key resistance level at $0.219, it could open the door for a rally toward $0.258 and even $0.287, representing a 40% potential upside. On the other hand, if the current trend fails to reverse, HBAR could see a continued decline, testing support at $0.179. A break below this level could lead to even lower prices, possibly below $0.17, marking a new low for the token since November 2024.

Conclusion

Hedera (HBAR) has shown signs of a potential trend shift, with key indicators pointing toward increasing buying pressure. However, confirmation of a reversal will depend on breaking through critical resistance levels, particularly at $0.219. If HBAR can sustain its upward momentum, the coin could see significant gains, but failure to hold above key levels could lead to a deeper decline. Traders should monitor key price levels and market conditions closely to determine the next move for HBAR.