Hedera (HBAR) has seen a modest recovery, briefly climbing above $0.21 in the last 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency remains under pressure following a significant 40% correction over the past month. Despite this short-term bounce, technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum is still holding sway, making it difficult for HBAR to confirm a full trend reversal.

Weak Trend Strength and Uncertain Reversal

The trend strength for Hedera, as indicated by the Average Directional Index (ADX), currently stands at 23.2, which is a slight decrease from 27.4 the day before. ADX, a key measure of trend strength, shows that Hedera’s price movement is losing momentum after a brief uptick. Readings above 25 signal a strong trend, but since Hedera is currently below this threshold, it indicates that the market has not yet solidified a clear bullish trend.

While ADX has risen in recent days, its current decline signals that Hedera’s potential recovery lacks the necessary strength to establish a confirmed uptrend. If the ADX continues to drop, it may suggest that Hedera’s price will consolidate further or even continue its downward trajectory. For a more definitive reversal, ADX would need to surpass 25, confirming that buying pressure is building.

Bearish Signals from the Ichimoku Cloud

The Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which is often used to assess market momentum, also presents a bearish outlook for Hedera. The price remains below the red Kumo (cloud), signaling continued downside pressure. The cloud is thick and expected to stay red, reflecting strong resistance ahead and a prevailing bearish trend.

Furthermore, the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) is still below the Kijun-sen (baseline line), which indicates that the market has not yet shifted into a bullish phase. Although the price has temporarily moved above the Tenkan-sen, this brief recovery is not enough to suggest a full trend reversal. For a true reversal to occur, HBAR would need to rise above the Kijun-sen and break into the cloud, which would indicate a reduction in bearish pressure. Until this happens, Hedera’s market will likely remain under the influence of the ongoing downtrend.

Potential for Further Decline

Hedera’s Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) also reinforce the bearish trend, with shorter-term EMAs positioned below longer-term ones. This alignment suggests that the market is still dominated by selling pressure, making it challenging for HBAR to mount a strong recovery. Currently, HBAR is testing key support at $0.17. If this support level is broken, it could lead to a further decline, with the next major support level around $0.12, representing a potential 42% drop from current levels.

For Hedera to regain bullish momentum, its short-term EMAs would need to cross above the longer-term ones, signaling a shift toward upward momentum. Without sustained buying pressure, any potential upward movement could quickly stall.

Potential for a Reversal to $0.40

However, should HBAR break through resistance levels, there are possibilities for a recovery. The first major resistance to watch is at $0.25, which would be a key level for determining if the trend is shifting. If HBAR manages to surpass this resistance, it could continue toward $0.35. A sustained uptrend could even push Hedera back to $0.40, a price point last seen in mid-January, which would represent a significant 90% upside from current levels.

Despite these possibilities, the road to a full recovery remains uncertain. The market will need to see more consistent buying activity and a shift in trend strength for Hedera to break free from its current bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Hedera (HBAR) is currently caught in a battle between bearish momentum and the potential for a trend reversal. While it has shown some recovery, the technical indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency is still under pressure. The key levels to watch are $0.17 for support and $0.25 for resistance, with the direction of the market heavily dependent on whether Hedera can maintain its short-term gains or if it will face further declines. Investors should keep an eye on the trend strength and look for signs of a more sustainable recovery before making any major moves.