Pi Network’s token, PI, has been in a steady decline after an impressive rally earlier this month. Following a sharp 26.28% surge on March 12, 2025, the coin has shed over 50% of its value, raising concerns about the network’s long-term viability. A combination of bearish market sentiment and issues surrounding centralization is keeping investors cautious, as the market shows little signs of a quick recovery.

PI’s Post-Surge Decline

Pi Network’s PI token experienced a sharp rise on March 12, 2025, with the coin gaining 26.28% in a single day. However, the euphoria was short-lived. Since that rally, the price has been on a steady downtrend. As of the latest data, PI has dropped by 54% from its peak, leaving investors questioning whether further declines are imminent or if a reversal might take place.

One of the key concerns in the market is the centralization of Pi Network’s coin holdings. The project holds a massive 82.8 billion PI tokens, which has raised questions about the network’s decentralization and its potential to maintain long-term sustainability. This concentration of tokens in the hands of the project has raised doubts about the genuine market dynamics and the ability of Pi Network to attract long-term investors.

Bearish Market Sentiment

Market indicators suggest that the bearish sentiment surrounding PI will likely continue. A quick look at the 4-hour chart shows a firm downtrend for the token. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained below -0.05 for most of the past week, indicating consistent capital outflows and continued selling pressure. This reflects a market that remains heavily skewed toward short-selling, with little buying interest.

Additionally, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart confirm the ongoing downtrend. The price has repeatedly been rejected at the 20-period moving average, which has served as a dynamic resistance level. If the token fails to break above these moving averages in the coming days, it is likely that the downtrend will continue.

Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels

Technical analysis further supports the view that PI could see additional losses in the near term. Using Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing move downward, it is projected that the PI token could test levels as low as $0.775 and $0.638 in the coming days. These levels represent potential take-profit zones for short-sellers, with $0.775 serving as the first significant support level.

A recent price bounce on March 21, 2025, saw PI briefly test the 78.6% retracement level at $1.14, but the token was quickly rejected, losing 28.38% since then. The price has since slipped below the $0.86 mark, which further reinforces the negative outlook.

Funding Rates and Market Activity

A closer look at Pi Network’s derivatives market reveals that short-sellers are dominating. The funding rate has remained persistently negative over the past week, signaling that short positions outnumber long positions. This reflects the bearish sentiment in the market, as traders appear to be betting on further price declines.

Open Interest in PI futures has remained flat over the past four days, indicating that market participants are mostly on the sidelines, awaiting a clearer market direction. As PI continues to trend downward, the lack of new buyers further reinforces the bearish market structure.

Conclusion: Bearish Sentiment Holds Strong

The combination of negative market sentiment, technical indicators, and centralization concerns all point toward a continued decline for Pi Network’s PI token in the short term. With the price testing key support levels at $0.775 and $0.638, the market is expected to remain subdued unless a significant shift in sentiment occurs. For now, investors should remain cautious, and those looking to buy might wait for signs of a bullish reversal before entering the market. Until then, the downtrend appears likely to continue.