Render (RENDER) has recently experienced a price surge, but the movement comes with some caveats. The price increase, while impressive, did not come alongside a notable increase in network activity, casting doubt on whether this surge is sustainable. Render bulls are currently challenging the $4.4 resistance level, hoping for a breakout that could push the price higher, potentially reaching $7. However, underlying concerns related to distribution trends and stagnant development activity could suggest that the price increase might falter in the near future.

Render has gained attention after reclaiming the $3 demand zone, which prompted predictions of further price increases. A key level of resistance, the $4.4 mark, has become a focal point for traders and investors. If Render can successfully break through this resistance, the path could be clear for a move toward $7, which would also signal a breakout from a bullish pennant pattern that the altcoin has been forming. A rise past $7 could potentially put the previous high of $13 back in sight, creating further excitement among traders.

However, as much as the price action has been positive, there are warning signs that investors should keep in mind. A closer look at the project’s metrics reveals a lack of significant development activity, which is a key factor in the sustainability of any cryptocurrency’s price surge. According to data from Santiment, the decentralized GPU-based rendering solution’s development activity has been minimal. This lack of development is concerning because it indicates that there are fewer improvements or upgrades being made to the network, which could ultimately lead to a loss of investor confidence and interest.

Moreover, although Render’s price has been on the rise, other metrics suggest that this price action is not being supported by a corresponding surge in network activity. The daily active addresses metric has been in a downtrend since November 2024, and there has been little change in the number of active users. Additionally, the mean coin age—a measure of how long coins are held by their owners—has been falling rapidly over the past three months. This suggests that older holders are selling off their positions, a sign of increased selling pressure and potential market instability.

Render’s social volume has also been on the rise, but this is not necessarily an indication of a sustained rally. Social volume can be a leading indicator of market sentiment, but it does not always correlate with actual price movement or network growth. In this case, although social volume has increased slightly over the past month, it has not been accompanied by a significant rise in user activity or development, which limits its effectiveness as a bullish signal.

Additionally, the 7-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), a key indicator of market momentum, is sitting at 50. While this suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, it also indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum. A higher RSI would typically be seen as a sign of sustained upward pressure, but the current reading suggests that Render may not have the momentum necessary to push beyond the $4.4 resistance level in the short term.

The recent price bounce, which took the 90-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) above zero, shows that medium-term holders are slightly in profit. However, it also underlines the ongoing distribution trend, where investors have been selling into strength. This distribution could indicate that holders are taking profits, especially considering that the price has been struggling to break above key resistance levels.

While Render has made some notable gains, the overall trend suggests that caution may be wise for those looking to buy in at current levels. The lack of network growth, combined with increasing distribution and minimal development activity, indicates that the price surge might not have the solid foundation necessary for a sustained rally. Although the $4.4 resistance remains a crucial point for bulls, the absence of accompanying technical and fundamental support leaves Render vulnerable to a correction if the buying pressure weakens.

For those looking to trade or invest in Render, it may be prudent to watch for signs of renewed development, an uptick in network activity, or a more significant breakout above $4.4. Until then, Render’s current price action appears to be more of a short-term bounce rather than the beginning of a long-term upward trend. If these warning signs continue to manifest, the price could struggle to maintain its current level, and a correction might be on the horizon. Traders and investors should be cautious, as the market remains uncertain and susceptible to further fluctuations.