Solana (SOL) has been in a steady decline since its peak in January 2025, but recent data is hinting at a potential price reversal. According to Binance Futures data, 78.82% of open positions on Solana are currently long, suggesting strong bullish sentiment among traders. However, this optimism comes amidst months of price drops, open interest declines, and falling network fees. So, the question is: can this surge in bullish sentiment drive a price reversal for SOL?

A Surge in Bullish Sentiment Among Futures Traders

As of March 22, 2025, data shared by Ali Charts shows that nearly 79% of Solana futures positions on Binance are long. This represents a significant increase in bullish positioning, with traders more than three times as likely to bet on the upside. The Long/Short ratio of 3.72 indicates that traders are anticipating a rise in SOL’s price, contrasting with the more conservative sentiment seen across other major cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

While the 78% long positioning might suggest growing confidence in a price recovery, it’s essential to consider the broader market sentiment. For instance, Bitcoin futures have seen a more moderate Long/Short ratio, which dropped from 2.05 on March 21 to 1.71 by March 24. This decline hints at a cautious approach by top traders, while Solana’s futures positioning is signaling a stronger confidence in a potential reversal.

Declining Open Interest and Price: A Synchronized Downtrend

Solana’s open interest has dropped significantly in recent months, mirroring the decline in its price. Open interest reached a peak of $6 billion in January 2025, but it has since fallen by 58%, bringing it down to $2.548 billion by March 25. This drop correlates closely with SOL’s price, which plummeted 52% from a high of $290 to around $142.

This synchronized decrease in price and open interest could signal the unwinding of leveraged positions, leading to a potential bottom. Traders are now closely watching this decline in open interest as it may indicate that SOL’s price has reached a point of stabilization. The slight daily gain of +1.32% on March 25 further reinforces the possibility that SOL’s price could be turning around.

On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals

While Solana’s price has been struggling, its on-chain data provides a more nuanced view. From October 2024 to January 2025, Solana’s network fees surged by an astonishing 3,453%, reaching a peak of $35.53 million. However, since then, fees have dropped by 96.5%, now standing at just $1.28 million as of March 25.

Despite the dramatic fall in fees, Solana continues to maintain strong user engagement. The decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on Solana reached $1.552 billion in 24 hours, nearly matching Ethereum’s $1.664 billion, despite Ethereum having a significantly larger total value locked (TVL). Solana’s DeFi TVL stands at $6.809 billion, second only to Ethereum, further indicating that despite declining fees, the network still enjoys significant usage.

SOL’s Potential for Reversal: What’s Next?

Solana’s price trajectory has been erratic. From under $60 in October 2024, it surged above $270 by mid-January, only to fall by over 50% by March. However, the recent slight gain of 6.13% on March 24 signals that market sentiment might be stabilizing.

The 78% bullish positioning in Solana Futures suggests that many traders believe a price reversal is possible. This optimism is particularly noteworthy given the decline in SOL’s fees, open interest, and market cap dominance. However, the ongoing strong DEX activity and user engagement provide hope that Solana’s decline may be reaching an end, with a potential bounce on the horizon.

In conclusion, while the recent data and market signals suggest a possible reversal for SOL, traders remain cautious. The bullish sentiment reflected in the futures market is supported by Solana’s active user base and DEX volumes, which hint at stabilization. If Solana can break past key resistance levels and see a sustained rise in fees and on-chain activity, it may be poised for a strong recovery.